After holding out for part of voluntary OTAs last offseason because of his frustration with the lack of what he considered a serious long-term contract offer from the team, TE Owen Daniels told PFW talks appear to be moving in the right direction with the Texans and he's hoping to avoid skipping practices this year.
The lack of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement kept Daniels from becoming an unrestricted free agent, and the Texans placed the highest possible restricted tender on him, meaning a team would have to give up both a first-round pick and a third-rounder if they signed him to an offer sheet and the Texans opted not to match the offer.
"The Texans did a good job of protecting themselves," Daniels said. "It was a good sign that they put that max tender on me. It shows that they want me around. If they didn't care about losing me or potentially wanted to trade me I think they would've tendered me at a lower amount. I think that's a positive thing for sure.
"If they would've put that lower tender on me, I would've been really confused. It would have been clear at that point that they weren't tied to me and didn't need me around. It makes me feel important that they need me in this offense. That's the way I looked at it. I wasn't trying to find any negatives in it."
Daniels, who said his rehab from a torn ACL is going well, doesn't expect any team to send him an offer sheet. In addition, he said his agent, Alan Herman, and Texans GM Rick Smith apparently had positive discussions about a long-term deal at the Combine last month and have decided to put the contract talks that went sour last year out of mind.
"(The Texans) do want to get a deal done," Daniels said. "I don't think they necessarily want to wait until next offseason (to do it). … As long as I can show them that I'm healthy and ready to go, I think they know what I can do. I don't think I necessarily have to prove that I can play football anymore. I think I just have to prove I can get back out there. Hopefully we can get something done before the season, but I understand if they need to see me play some games before we do something."
He will likely sign his one-year tender this summer and hope the groundwork is laid for him to sign a long-term deal early next season. With the threat of a lockout looming in 2011, however, some NFL teams are trying to avoid committing money to players beyond 2010. While Daniels said he would strongly prefer not to hold out this summer, he isn't completely ruling it out.
"I guess anything's a possibility, but I really don't want to do that," he said. "I really, really don't want to do that. I want to be there with the guys. I don't want to sit out when everyone else is doing their thing. "… I'm sure there are a lot of people that have considered not showing up or making a fuss about it, but I don't want to be the guy to do that if it's not necessary. It would have to be an extreme, extreme situation for me not to show up.
"If things got completely unreasonable, but even then I might just be like, 'Well, I'll go to work anyway and I'll do my thing and hopefully that will show them that I'm serious.' It's weird talking about 'Will you hold out, will you not hold out?' I definitely don't want to. You can just never say never."
Daniels was on pace to set career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns last season before he tore his ACL in Week Eight vs. Buffalo. He has sustained a torn ACL three times since high school, but he said this has been the smoothest recovery of the three.
"It's the third ACL (tear) that I've had in my life, so I kind of know the ropes a little bit, so that's helped out," he said. "I'm four months out of surgery now. I've been ahead of schedule. (The trainers) have been trying to hold me back a little bit because we don't have to rush. We don't have huge time constraints. I should be full-go by the middle of summer — probably in May or June.
"I definitely have no doubt that I'll be back and, if not better, just as strong."
For the most authoritative NFL draft news and free-agency analysis, visit ProFootballWeekly.com.
Chargers OLB Shawne Merriman says he has made his intentions clear — he loves playing in San Diego and wants to remain with the team beyond March 5, when his contract expires.
The Chargers, however, haven't been forthcoming about their plans for him, and he's not happy about it.
"As long as I'm able to play football somewhere, I think I'll be in a great situation," he told PFW. "I've said over and over again that San Diego is one of the greatest places you can be. The fans are great here, and my teammates have been great. The organization, they've been great up to this point, and we're going to see what happens with that.
"I love being here, period, but at the same time, to be in my situation after helping my team out as much as I have in the past, to not know where you're going or what's going to happen with your future, is not a great situation for me. It doesn't make me feel good."
If no new Collective Bargaining Agreement is agreed upon before March 5, Merriman will become a restricted free agent, which will put the Chargers in control of his future.
In late January, Merriman said he felt like he was in the "worst possible situation" because he didn't know whether the team wanted to keep him.
Merriman said that while his situation is unsettling, he doesn't plan on taking the same road other frustrated players have used: making a public plea to be allowed to depart in free agency or be traded.
"I'm a football player," he said. "I love playing the game. People know what I've done over the years. My teammates know how much I mean in that locker room and what I'm capable of doing. I'm not going to ever go to the media and pout and make myself look like an ass. For what? I'm a football player and that's what I do. ... When you turn on that film, you know what Shawne Merriman is capable of doing. When I go in that locker room and I bust my ass every day working out, the team knows what I'm capable of doing. My teammates know what I'm capable of doing, and that's the only thing that's important to me. Everything else is irrelevant. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen. I just can't wait to line back up and play football again.
"As far as my future, I just want everything to be fair. As long as I'm able to go back to playing football and go out and perform and go back to dominating again, that's the most important thing to me. As far as the CBA and all that stuff, I don't have any control over that."
Merriman said he expects discussions between him and the team to pick up when the Scouting Combine begins this week. For now, his focus is on staying healthy and working out. Merriman came back in 2009 and made four sacks after missing all but one game in '08 with torn knee ligaments. He averaged 13.2 sacks in his first three seasons before the knee injury sidelined him, but he said focusing on those numbers and the decline in sacks in '09 doesn't do his performance justice.
"Nobody wants to step on the field and get double-digit sacks every year more than I do, and I hold myself to a higher standard," he said.
"People look at sacks and they're not really paying attention to what's important. In 2008, when I wasn't playing, I don't know where we finished in defense overall, but it was late 20s or something like that (25th). We made a heck of a jump this year statistically (to 16th)."
Merriman did say, however, that he expects to regain his Pro Bowl-caliber form next season.
"I could sit here and talk about all the stats I'm going to put up and all the great things and sacks and all that stuff," he said. "I think the bigger and more important thing is that I'm going to be back at full strength next year. Even at some points this (past) year, I require so much attention (from offenses) sometimes, and I think it goes unnoticed. I'm out there playing and I'm getting double-teamed, and nobody's running my way and things like that, so I didn't finish statistically where I wanted to for the season, and we didn't finish where we wanted to as a team. But at the same time, I think I was able to go out there and be disruptive."
Merriman has also dealt with some off-field issues this offseason. He and former MTV star Tila Tequila resolved their lawsuits against each other last week.
Merriman was arrested in September after Tequila alleged that he choked and physically restrained her as she tried to leave his home. No charges were brought against Merriman, but Tequila filed a lawsuit against him for assault, battery, false imprisonment and emotional distress. Merriman then sued her for intentional interference with a contract, because her allegations reportedly prevented him from completing a deal with Walmart to produce T-shirts.
Merriman did not speak about the specifics of the resolution but did say he's glad it's behind him.
"I'm just happy that all that stuff is over and I'm able to move on with my life, and that's it," he said. "That's all I really have to say about that."
For the most authoritative NFL draft news and free-agency analysis, visit ProFootballWeekly.com.
Jim Schwartz stood patiently at the back of the small press-conference room in a Mobile, Ala., hotel at the Senior Bowl last month, where he was coaching the North team, ready to deliver his final media address before the game. At his side, wrapped in brown protective paper, was a painting by a local artist from nearby Fairhope, Ala., a piece he had picked up during a short layover between the practice and this early-evening meeting.
The painting depicted a pastoral scene, with two dogs in the hunt amid a thicket of trees and woods, eying a far-off prize that is out of sight of the frame. It's something that Schwartz, whose Lions took baby steps in his first season as head coach, likely can relate to after a 2-14 season that saw them fall to the one-win Rams and one that closed with six straight losses.
"I've been coming here for 17 years," he said to a small group of reporters taking note of the latest addition to his collection. "I know all the places to hit around here."
It's easy to forget that the Lions' second-year head coach has been in the NFL that long as an assistant coach, scout and now head coach. He appears young and is young at 43, still in relatively good shape (compared to some of his brethren, to be sure), and is known as a coach who understands and promotes the use of technology and new-wave statistical analysis, which some of his colleagues have yet to embrace fully.
So when Schwartz sends what appears to be a mixed message about his team after last year's performance, you have to keep in mind that he's doing this for a very specific reason. He knows what he's doing when ...
On the one hand, he's quick to pan his team's performance last season.
"We're a 2-14 team," Schwartz said. We have a lot of needs, and our No. 1 need is talent. ... We need to do better than that. I think if we point to anything other than wins as far as grading ourselves, we're looking at the wrong thing. And we've got a long way to go."
But on the flip side, don't you dare question his core of guys, QB Matthew Stafford being chief among them. When asked about Stafford needing to improve his accuracy after a 53 percent and 20-INT rookie season, Schwartz immediately took umbrage and went on the defensive.
"I think he's a very accurate passer," Schwartz said. "With the number of deep passes he was asked to throw, his (completion percentage) is going to be a little lower. We love his toughness, his arm strength and his accuracy. We have no issues with his accuracy."
The same goes for first-round TE Brandon Pettigrew, a player Schwartz clearly loves. Mention Pettigrew's occasional struggles as a rookie, a season that ended with an ACL tear, and Schwartz just might go after your ACL.
"I don't think there are many players who are going to come in and be consistent right away, but I thought he was on his way to an outstanding year," Schwartz said. "So, we weren't disappointed at all in him."
There's a difference, however, between what Schwartz is saying and what an insecure second-year head coach somewhere else might do. What people are starting to realize is the wisdom behind the defense of his young players, especially Stafford.
Schwartz might have been in Detroit for only a year now, but he has been around the league long enough to know the team's history. For years, rumors would spread quickly that the coaching staff (whichever one was in power) was not supporting the quarterback (whichever one was throwing passes), and the team would crumble thusly.
Schwartz won't let that happen on his watch. He has the most important piece in place with his team, even if a dozen other spots must be seriously upgraded. At his end-of-the-season address, Schwartz said the team needed to support Stafford better, which is a not-so-subtle way of saying that as bad as the defense was last season, the Lions are not in a position to load up on that one side of the ball. There are tons of needs on offense, too. In fact, the Lions' top needs haven't changed: Last year, their top need, both Schwartz and GM Martin Mayhew said, was talent, and it remains that way.
"We need another draft like last year's," said Schwartz, who noted the strong play by rookies such as S Louis Delmas, although the coach also threw Pettigrew and other rookies into the discussion, players who have talent but need to improve.
"I think the bar was set high with the production of a lot of our other rookies," Schwartz said. "Stafford started right away in Game One, Pettigrew was on his way to a really outstanding season, (LB DeAndre) Levy had an outstanding season ...
"Louis Delmas ... I can't think of adjectives to describe how good I think he is. I just know this: There were a lot of guys we liked that were drafted in the first round last year, and I don't know very many that if that team called up and said, 'One for one, we'll trade (our guy) for Delmas, that we'd make that trade. He's got the attitude that we want. He's the multidimensional player we want, all these different things."
But more than simply paying lip service, Schwartz's defense of Stafford and the young group of players who are becoming "his guys" appears so forceful, so genuine, that you know the coach believes in his kids, especially his QB. Stafford might not be there yet, but you get the idea that Schwartz would stake his job on him becoming one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at some point.
"He was put in a tough situation, and he handled it beautifully," Schwartz said.
As for the coach and his own self-assessment, he's not into dishing out grades.
"It has nothing to do with me, it's the team," Schwartz said. "I leave my grades to all you guys (in the media). I never graded myself because I am too hard a grader. I am never satisfied with where we are. You're motivated by that fact."
Anyone who saw him at the end of the season knew how hard things were going down the stretch. He blew up after the 48-3 loss to the Ravens in Baltimore, Schwartz's hometown, in which the Lions were not competitive from the opening snap. He got snippy at times with the media and, when talking of his team, often repeated the phrase: "We know what our issues are."
Translation: The talent stunk.
But a bit of rest at season's end and the Senior Bowl assignment appeared to light a mini-fire under the coach. After all, 17 years in the NFL or not, almost no second-year head coach can burn out after one tough season. He's already knee-deep in offseason activities, gearing up for free agency and the draft.
Schwartz also rediscovered his sense of humor, which contains a bit of an edge. It's not quite smartest-guy-in-the-room variety, but it has an air of sarcasm that complements his scholarly-cum-blue-collar personality. And whoever said there's no such thing as a dumb question hadn't heard this gem: "Coach, would you care to give us a little preview of (the following day's Senior Bowl) walk-through?"
"Well," Schwartz said and then paused, thinking quietly for a moment. "You're going to see a bunch of guys moving around slightly faster than I am now," he said, standing perfectly still.
That pause did not exist when he was asked about Stafford or Pettigrew or Delmas. Schwartz knew what he was going to say to anyone who questioned "his guys." There was no delay, no sarcasm. When it comes to defending what he believes in, you are not going to get any of that. You'll get his quickly hardened belief: that there is something to believe in with the Lions.
It remains a distant goal, still out of both reach and view for now, like whatever those dogs were hunting in that painting. But, as Schwartz has adopted as his go-to saying with Stafford, "if you have a quarterback, you have a chance."
And the Lions, believe it or not, have a chance.
PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the third issue focusing on underclassmen and how they've panned out over the years now ready. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.
Both the old and the new did their best to make a mark on the 2009 NFL season.
Representing the old was Brett Favre, who at age 40 came back to have one of his best years yet. Peyton Manning also had another monster season to lead the Colts back to the Super Bowl, and Tom Brady returned from injury to make the Patriots a top team once again. Furthermore, familiar faces like those of Mike Shanahan and Pete Carroll will return to the sideline in 2010.
Then, there's the new. The Saints won their first Super Bowl ever. A first-year head coach and quarterback helped the Jets far surpass expectations. Chris Johnson became the most prolific yardage producer of all time in just his second season. And rookie linebackers stepped in and instantly wreaked havoc.
While ongoing CBA issues continue to cloud the future, they did not stop '09 from being one of the most intriguing seasons ever.
Determined by the votes of the PFW editorial staff, the 10 most significant story lines of the past year are as follows:
1. Saints win first Super Bowl in team history
Winning their first 13 games and looking like the NFC's best team for much of the season, the Saints faltered down the stretch, appearing very vulnerable as they dropped three in a row heading into the playoffs. But Sean Payton got his players refocused for a postseason run, and they proceeded to blow out the Cardinals and squeak by the Vikings to advance to their first-ever Super Bowl. Underdogs against the vaunted Colts, QB Drew Brees picked apart the Indy defense, but it was the Saints' ballhawking "D" that ultimately made the biggest play of the contest, as CB Tracy Porter picked off a fourth-quarter Peyton Manning pass and returned it for a touchdown. Becoming a beacon of hope for the still-recovering city of New Orleans, the Saints sparked "Who Dat Nation" celebrations throughout the French Quarter by winning their first Lombardi Trophy.
2. Colts pass on perfection, come up short of title
Not many teams have a realistic chance at a perfect season, but the Colts had just that opportunity in 2009. Behind another MVP season from QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis jumped out to a 14-0 start under first-year head coach Jim Caldwell. In a Week 16 meeting with the Jets, however, Caldwell decided to rest his key players in the second half, then watched as the reserves blew a lead and went on to lose. He justified the move by saying that the No. 1 goal was to win the Super Bowl, but Colts fans didn't take too kindly to the decision. After handling the Ravens and Jets in the playoffs, Indy had a chance to redeem itself in Super Bowl XLIV; that game, however, didn't go as planned. The "D" struggled to stop Drew Brees and Co., and a late Manning interception sealed the Colts' fate and resulted in a disappointing finish to an otherwise strong campaign.
3. Little progress made in CBA talks; uncapped year looms
One of the big stories last offseason was the uncertainty surrounding the NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement, which is set to enter its final year this March. Fast-forward to today, and not much has changed. With the owners and the NFLPA making little movement in negotiations over a new CBA, all signs point toward 2010 being an uncapped season. That means teams will be able to spend as much — or as little — as they want, potentially taking away some of the competitive balance that has made the league so interesting. Free agents will be limited in their availability to sign elsewhere, as more years of service will be required in '10 to qualify for unrestricted free agency. While these are fairly minor speed bumps in the big picture, a much bigger one will be on the horizon if a deal isn't completed in the next year: a possible 2011 lockout.
4. Favre returns (again) to lead Vikings to glory
Following an up-and-down season with the Jets, QB Brett Favre retired for the second time. But, just as he did the previous year, he returned, only this time with the Vikings. What he did from there was unbelievable enough to one day be made into a Disney movie. At 40 years old, the three-time MVP put together one of his best seasons yet, throwing for 4,202 yards with an eye-popping 33-7 TD-to-interception ratio and 107.2 passer rating. The missing piece on a potent Minnesota offense, he helped the team finish with a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Despite all his accomplishments, though, people are likely to remember his '09 season for the final play he made: an ill-advised, across-the-body throw that was picked off in the waning moments of the NFC title game, likely costing the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl.
5. Jets reach AFC title game with rookie coach, QB
With a first-year head coach in Rex Ryan and a rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez, expectations for the Jets weren't exactly through the roof in 2009 — just being competitive would have been enough for most fans. But Ryan, a defensive mastermind, quickly backed up his big talk: New York's "D" was tops in the league. Much of the credit belongs to CB Darrelle Revis, who developed into arguably the NFL's premier shutdown corner. Sanchez's season was a mixed bag, but Thomas Jones and the team's No. 1-ranked running game kept the offense in most contests, and the Jets snuck into the playoffs, thanks to their final two opponents basically rolling over. After capturing a road win in Cincinnati, Gang Green shocked league observers by winning at San Diego to advance to the AFC title game, before losing to the Colts.
6. Bengals display toughness amid tragedy
Entering the '09 season, the Bengals looked like no better than the third-place club in a top-heavy AFC North. But then an interesting thing happened: They reinvented themselves as a tough, hard-nosed football team. Clearly, it worked. Cincinnati swept its divisional foes to go 10-6 on the shoulders of RB Cedric Benson, who finished second in the league with 96.2 rushing yards per game, and a "D" that ranked No. 4. It wasn't a campaign without tumult, however. First, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer lost his wife, Vikki, in October. Then, WR Chris Henry was killed in a car accident in December. Through it all, head coach Marvin Lewis held the club together, earning Coach of the Year honors for his efforts on and off the field.
7. Johnson, Young turn Titans' season around
Things couldn't have gotten off to a more dismal start for the defending AFC South champion Titans. Jeff Fisher's troops lost six consecutive games to begin the season due largely to a pass defense that was nonexistent. But following a Week Seven bye in which Vince Young replaced Kerry Collins under center, Tennessee looked like a different team. Young proceeded to lead the Titans to five consecutive victories and eight wins in their final 10 games, salvaging the season and solidifying his starting spot for 2010. The turnaround never would have happened, though, if not for RB Chris Johnson. Running for at least 100 yards in each of the final 11 contests, the explosive second-year back led the league in rushing with 2,006 yards and set an all-time mark for yards from scrimmage in a season (2,509). Not surprisingly, he was named the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year.
8. Brady return, Belichick call mark Patriots' year
Perhaps no player had more attention on him to start the 2009 season than Patriots QB Tom Brady, who just one year earlier had suffered torn knee ligaments in the season opener and missed the remainder of the campaign. The '07 MVP didn't miss a beat, though, throwing for 378 yards in Week One and going on to help New England get back to the playoffs with another Pro Bowl year. But it wasn't all smiles for the Pats this season. The defense struggled at times, which was one of the main reasons for Bill Belichick's infamous fourth-down call against the Colts in Week 10. Leading 34-28, Belichick opted to go for it on 4th-and-2 from New England's own 28 with 2:08 left in the game. When Brady's completion to Kevin Faulk was marked inches short of the first down, Peyton Manning came out and led Indy to the game-winning TD. The failed, gutsy decision would go on to be scrutinized for weeks.
9. Shanahan, Carroll coming back to the NFL in '10
Jim Zorn needed to make a statement in his second year as coach of the Redskins, but noticeable regression by his club in the early going left him as a lame duck for most of the season. After finishing 4-12, the team wasted little time in dismissing Zorn. Knowing the importance of his next hire, owner Daniel Snyder aimed high by bringing in Mike Shanahan, who won two Super Bowls with the Broncos and gives the 'Skins instant credibility. Meanwhile, in Seattle, Jim Mora had a 5-11 mark in his first season at the helm there, but Seahawks brass had bigger things in mind. They let go of Mora and made a shocking splash by luring Pete Carroll away from USC. Carroll will certainly bring enthusiasm and excitement to the Pacific Northwest, but how his coaching style will go over there will be an intriguing development to follow.
10. Rookie linebackers take league by storm
Every rookie class seems to have one position group that stands above the rest, and in 2009, linebackers ruled the roost. A whopping three first-year 'backers made the Pro Bowl, led by Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing of the Texans. The Packers' Clay Matthews and Washington's Brian Orakpo — who played some defensive end, as well — were also Pro Bowlers in Year One, each finishing with double-digit sacks. In addition, the Rams' James Laurinaitis, Cincinnati's Rey Maualuga and the Lions' DeAndre Levy had fine rookie campaigns. It's likely that nobody will be forgetting about this crop of linebackers any time soon.
PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue now ready for mailing and a third issue focusing on underclassmen to be published in the next few weeks. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame's Class of 2010 will be announced at 5 p.m. ET Saturday from the Super Bowl media headquarters in South Florida. Stay tuned to ProFootballWeekly.com for our story on who made it and why.
At one point during a recent fan poll conducted by clothing manufacturer Van Heusen, former Oakland punter Ray Guy ranked behind only Emmitt Smith, Jerry Rice, Shannon Sharpe and Cris Carter as the player most deserving of gaining entrance to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Guy has become the example of a player the fans want to see go into Canton but who just can't get past the selection process. You see, every year a selection committee, made up of 44 writers, votes in as many as five new players, coaches or contributors (seven, counting the two senior committee candidates). And as the list of eligible candidates continues to grow, that annual list of entrants does not, making for an ever-increasingly difficult process.
"The initial group of nominees can be overwhelming," admits Howard Balzer, an at-large member of the selection committee.
Here's a quick rundown on how it all works:
The committee is given a preliminary list of candidates each September (this year there were 131 names on that list). By November, the committee has to vote for its 25 semifinalists. From there, it must pare down the list to 15 finalists. During the week leading up to the Super Bowl, the committee meets in a room where arguments are made for various candidates. Via blind balloting, the list gets trimmed to 10, and ultimately a list of five players is selected for final consideration. The committee then has a yes-or-no vote to determine who gets in (most years that requires a "yes" vote of 80 percent).
Balzer's method goes something like this each year: First, he goes through the list and identifies approximately 15 or so guys who jump out at him as well-deserving Hall of Famers. After that, he says, it's very close, and a number of factors are weighed for the remaining 10.
What fans often overlook is that every player on that list of 131 names was a standout in his time — possibly a multiple Pro Bowler or Super Bowl winner. There are no duds on the list, just various levels of greatness and plenty of room for debate. Add to all of this the fact that each year one or two ringers are added to the pool (read: Emmitt Smith and Jerry Rice this year), and it all but squashes the hopes of a player like Guy to get in.
Adds Balzer, "We always hear when a class comes in, 'How could you not have this guy? How could you leave off this guy?' What I always ask is: Who would you take out?' and that usually silences them, or I'll ask them to take the list of 25 and vote for 15 or 10. Then people begin to realize it's a lot more difficult than they thought it would be."
Trimming 131 to five is painful at each step, and so, Hall of Fame voters need excuses for why they should ignore an otherwise great player. Here are a few of those reasons:
Too many players from one team
Nine members of Vince Lombardi's Packers teams from the 1960s are in Canton, and that doesn't include C Jim Ringo (1953-63) or Lombardi himself. Those teams won five NFL titles, but it got to a point where voters believed Green Bay had plenty. Because of this, five-time All-Pro OG Jerry Kramer has been left out in the cold.
Says longtime committee member Edwin Pope, "Voters get tired of electing players from the same team. Emotions will arise that, 'Hey, we've got enough players from that team in here. Let's give it a rest for a while.' "
The same rationale has helped keep Pittsburgh's five-time Pro Bowl S Donnie Shell out.
Looking ahead, Balzer doesn't believe the great Cowboys teams of the '90s or the Patriots of the '00s will even come close to the number of players that Green Bay and Pittsburgh got through.
"Dallas is going to get (Troy) Aikman, (Michael) Irvin and Emmitt Smith. Maybe Larry Allen. There just aren't that many loaded rosters anymore," says Balzer. "Look at how good the Patriots have been, but who are they going to get in? Tom Brady, but who else?"
Take one but not the other
For cases where two of a team's cornerbacks are worthy, or a couple of the offensive/defensive linemen, the Hall of Fame has a history of passing through one but not both (or multiple). This may explain why Raiders CB Lester Hayes is not in, as teammate Mike Haynes made it in the 1997 class.
Says Len Shapiro, who has been on the committee since 1982 and also serves on the seniors selection committee, this way of thinking has adversely affected Vikings DL Jim Marshall, who is most famous for his wrong-way blunder but who also had a long, sustained career. Marshall's linemates Alan Page and Carl Eller are already in.
"I don't think that way, but unfortunately it may be the sentiment of enough people in the room that they don't get in," says Shapiro.
It may also explain Bob Kuechenberg's absence. A member of the Dolphins' great ground crews of the 1970s, the six-time Pro Bowl guard was once a finalist but never has made it through. The problem: Miami's center (Jim Langer) and opposite guard (Larry Little) are already in.
"People say, 'Hey, if we put Kuechenberg in there, the entire middle will be in there,' " says Pope.
Plus, says Pope, Kuechenberg is lacking in another Hall of Fame criterion.
"He wasn't famous enough. It sounds grade-schoolish, but there have been some players that got in because they were famous."
Pope didn't mention names, but a good example here could be Jets Hall of Fame QB Joe Namath, who lost more games than he won and threw almost 50 more interceptions than touchdowns.
Not part of winning teams
For quarterbacks, this can be the biggest factor in getting in. It doesn't matter if he is surrounded by subpar talent; the quarterback is held most accountable for his team's success.
Look no further than Cincinnati QB Ken Anderson, who did play in one Super Bowl (XVI) but whose Bengals teams were mostly rotten during the second half of his career. Yet no one denies Anderson was one of the best pure passing quarterbacks of his era (most of his 32,838 career yards came at a time before rules favored the passing game).
"It's getting harder and harder for a quarterback like Anderson to get in," says Pope, "because there's always some shoo-in like (Dan) Marino or Aikman or John Elway that storms in, and two quarterbacks are not going to get in on the same class."
In the case of the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, this unwritten criterion is especially harsh. Consider that Oakland won an average of 10 games per year over a 16-year period (1970-85) and yet is remembered for having faltered in AFC playoff games. This probably explains why so many outstanding Raiders players are still waiting for induction: Ken Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Cliff Branch, Todd Christensen, Ray Guy and Hayes.
System suspicion
Hall of Fame voters are keen to why some players might produce the numbers they do. A defensive end who performs well opposite a perennial Pro Bowl player is suspect, just as is a wide receiver catching passes from a Hall of Fame quarterback.
This will undoubtedly affect former Denver RB Terrell Davis, who gained 1,600 yards per season in his first four years before injuries grabbed hold (see below). Voters haven't forgotten how productive Davis was, but they also can't forget how productive Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary and Reuben Droughns were in Denver's back-friendly system, as well.
Didn't play long enough
Gale Sayers had only five productive NFL seasons before his knees gave way. For voters, that was enough.
"It's like the eye test," says Balzer. "There are some guys where you can tell they were an incredibly gifted player."
Today, players cannot rely on short-lived dominance; having a sustained career is as important as anything else in gaining entrance to the Hall. For example, take former Seattle S Kenny Easley. One of the best at his position in the 1980s, Easley went to five Pro Bowls in seven seasons before a kidney condition ended his career prematurely. That's not a long enough career to draw the attention of voters.
But beyond just the excuses for how to whittle down that impossible list of preliminary candidates are a few other rules voters seem to follow when shaping their ballot …
The spoils go to the offense
Voters can't help but to reward the glory positions. Excluding coaches and executives, just twice in the past 20 years has the Hall of Fame welcomed a class made up of more defensive players than offensive (2008 and '09). That suggests a gross imbalance in how the Hall appreciates the "other" side of the ball.
"Look at this year's finalists: nine offensive players, five defensive players, and you could argue that Don Coryell is an offensive guy," says Balzer. "There is definitely a strong lean toward offense that hurts defensive players.
"At least it's starting to change over the last couple of years."
Specialists do not count
Some players are bold enough to state that kickers aren't real players; Hall of Fame voters seem to agree. In the case of Guy — according to most, the greatest punter to ever play — there is no room in Canton.
"I'm just not going to vote for a punter," says Pope. "Has nothing to do with Ray Guy, I just don't think a guy who plays five or 10 plays a game belongs in the Hall of Fame. I want a guy who's in there almost every play on offense or defense."
Brian Mitchell has almost 20,000 career return yards, and Steve Tasker was a dominant special-teams performer, but neither is likely to get much love for the same reason: They just didn't play enough snaps.
"Even though coaches will argue that special teams is one-third of the game, the reality is those guys aren't on the field much," says Balzer.
Out of sight, out of mind
It's easy for a Hall of Fame candidate to get lost in the shuffle. Say, for example, a player becomes eligible amidst a period when there are a number of surefire first-ballot-type candidates. All of a sudden that player is now a few years removed from his entrance date, and voters begin to forget.
"Someone doesn't make the top 25 the first couple of years out, and then it becomes a situation where nobody is thinking about them," says Balzer.
This certainly handicaps the players of the pre-modern game. Very few of the 44-person selection committee know much about anyone before the league merger, and therefore those players are at the mercy of the seniors committee, which has an even bigger logjam to worry about (hundreds of potential names from the pre-1985 era for only two spots each year).
Laughs Shapiro, "We had to lobby to get two. It used to just be one."
Which current players may prove Hall-worthy?
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In the last in a series of 10 Super Bowl top-10 lists excerpted from "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," author Bob McGinn identifies the top 10 Super Bowl upsets of all time.
1. Jets over Colts, III: The Packers twice had held serve easily against the AFC, and Don Shula's supposed Colts juggernaut had just demolished Cleveland, 34-0, for the NFL crown. But the Jets had Joe Namath, multiple weapons on offense, and an established, resolute defense. Pro football was never the same after the Colts went down in flames.
2. Giants over Patriots, XLII: With 18 victories in hand, the Patriots needed one more for a perfect season and claim to the title of greatest team ever. Together with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, Tom Brady had rewritten the NFL record books — but the Giants weren't awestruck. Starting fast and finishing strong, the Giants handed Bill Belichick his most disappointing defeat.
3. Patriots over Rams, XXXVI: The Rams appeared to have it all: Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, "The Greatest Show on Turf," and a rugged defense. But Belichick found ways to disrupt their passing game, and the youthful Brady didn't make mistakes at the end. These aging, modestly talented Patriots epitomized the meaning of team.
4. Chiefs over Vikings, IV: The Chiefs waited three years for a chance to avenge their loss in Super Bowl I. Not only was the emotional edge leaning Kansas City's way, but so was the edge in talent. Steeped in the static concepts of the hide-bound NFL, the Vikings never had a chance.
5. Broncos over Packers, XXXII: Coach Mike Shanahan and his Broncos set the trap for the overconfident Packers, and they fell right in. Denver's blitzing defense consistently beat Brett Favre, and the Packers' defense became too exhausted to stop Terrell Davis or John Elway.
6. Giants over Bills, XXV: Two words: "wide right." Phil Simms was injured and the Giants had struggled mightily late in the season. The Bills had a galaxy of young stars and were coming off a 51-3 demolition of the Raiders. It came down to a 47-yard field goal, and Scott Norwood's kick sailed right.
7. Raiders over Redskins, XVIII: League MVP Joe Theismann and the Redskins had amassed 541 points during the season, a league record that would stand for 15 years. The Raiders, however, could rush and cover with anyone in their era. It was no contest.
8. Colts over Cowboys, V: Five times a division winner, the Cowboys made the Super Bowl for the first time with a dynamite roster in 1970. Duane Thomas' fumble at the goal line opened the door for the aging Colts, and then Jim O'Brien kicked it down.
9. Buccaneers over Raiders, XXXVII: Raiders C Barret Robbins going off on a bender 48 hours before kickoff didn't help. Neither did the horrendous performance of QB Rich Gannon. Still, Tampa Bay's defense was awfully good, and the offense clicked at just the right time.
10. 49ers over Bengals, XVI: The 49ers eventually went on to establish themselves as the "team of the 1980s," but in 1981 their 26-year-old quarterback was in just his first full year as a starter. The 49ers and Joe Montana did just enough in the first half to stave off the talented but mistake-prone Bengals. San Francisco's goal-line stand in the third quarter loomed large.
Bob McGinn, the author of "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," has covered the Green Bay Packers and the NFL for 30 years, including the last 19 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He has been Pro Football Weekly's correspondent in Green Bay since the early 1980s. McGinn spent 4½ years interviewing more than 150 head coaches, assistant coaches, players, general managers, scouts and owners, as well as studying tapes of every game, in preparation for writing his book. His objective was to break down why each game was won. "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," published by MVP Books, is available at mvpbooks.com, Amazon.com and book stores across the country. It contains more than 25 top-10 lists, a comprehensive statistical summary of each game and a list of Super Bowl records.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — For the most part, the numbers composing the Colts' regular-season statistical rankings on offense form a nice, skinny row of single digits on the page. There is a "1" for third-down efficiency, a "2" for passing yards gained per game, a "3" for average gain per offensive play.
But when the eyes scan to the Colts' rushing offense, the numbers jut out like a rock formation: 32. There's also a "30" for the Colts' average gain per rushing play for good measure.
No, the Colts' running game is neither the strength nor the emphasis of the offense, and everyone knows it.
"If you look at our numbers, our numbers have not been good," Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said earlier this week. "We have been either 31st or 32nd throughout the entire year (in rushing offense), so for me to tell you that's a figment of someone's imagination, that's not the case."
However, for as maligned as the running game has been, it came up big in the AFC title game vs. the Jets. In a major surprise, the Colts outgained the Jets, the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense, 101-86.
To the Colts, who rushed fewer times than every team in the league in 2009 but one (Arizona), it was a performance that validated the importance of their ground game — and dispelled the notion that it's a major weakness heading into Super Bowl XLIV against New Orleans on Sunday.
"I think sometimes, and we're all guilty of it to some degree, (it's) that if you don't have a 1,000-yard rusher, you didn't run the football very well," Colts RBs coach Gene Huey said. " … We don't have big (rushing) numbers, but we're balanced enough to where we are able to win."
For a team that can bury its ground game under a barrage of Peyton Manning passes, the Colts can't be accused of not investing in the RB position. Starter Joseph Addai was a first-round pick in 2006, and top backup Donald Brown was a first-rounder last year. Addai, who led the Colts with 828 yards and 10 touchdowns on 219 carries in the regular season, is likely to get most of the work against the Saints, with the quick, intriguing Brown to get a handful of carries too.
Addai played well in Super Bowl XLI, rushing for 77 yards on 19 carries and catching 10 passes for 66 yards on a rainy night in Miami, when the Colts, no doubt motivated by the conditions and the Bears' cover-2 scheme, surprisingly rushed 42 times for 191 yards and a touchdown en route to victory.
"He's a lot faster than you think," Saints SS Roman Harper observed of the 5-11, 214-pound Addai. "He's shifty. He's definitely more of a jump-cutter. And he gets downhill quickly. He runs harder than you think, and half of that is how fast he is getting downhill."
Said Huey: "There are times he reminds me of (former Baltimore Colts and Washington Redskins RB) Joe Washington, the great runner from Oklahoma. Sometimes Joseph seems like he is making cuts in mid-air because of his quickness and lateral quicks."
The Colts use a variety of running plays, with Harper and DT Sedrick Ellis noting Indianapolis' fondness for running quick-hitting traps in addition to stretch plays run to the right and left. The Colts' offensive line, which must adjust quickly if Manning audibles, is adept at not giving away whether it's a run or passing play, Ellis said, and he believes the Colts' success running the ball will be tied to all of their parts working together well.
"I think it's really a test of technique," he said. "If their technique is better, then they're going to be able to gash you. But I think they run it (as) a secondary thing to their offense, and I think that if you play your technique right, then it shouldn't be that big a factor."
And the numbers suggest the Colts' running game shouldn't be a primary concern for the Saints on Sunday. Addai knows how weak his part of the offense looks in spreadsheet form.
"So we never look at the paper," he said. "It's always about, in the game, did we feel like we did what we have to do?"
Many more times than not this season, they have, with the nice, skinny row of "Ws" in the win column the only proof that matters in the Colts' eyes.
Ninth in a series of 10 Super Bowl top-10 lists excerpted from "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book" by Bob McGinn.
Ten worst performances by a quarterback in a Super Bowl:
1. Craig Morton, Broncos, XII: Benched in the middle of a third-quarter series after nearly throwing a fifth interception, Morton finished the game with a passer rating of 0.0 against his former teammates. Preexisting hip injury contributed to his lack of mobility.
2. John Elway, Broncos, XXIV: Longest completion was a 27-yard shovel pass before he was relieved in the middle of the fourth quarter. Scrambled for just 8 yards and had three turnovers. Was sick much of the week and during the game.
3. Earl Morrall, Colts, III: The 1968 NFL player of the year with a 93.2 passer rating, Morrall was yanked in favor of Johnny Unitas late in the third quarter with a rating of 9.3. Looked every bit his 34 years. Rival Joe Namath dissed him during the week.
4. Kerry Collins, Giants, XXXV: After playing the game of his life in the NFC Championship game, Collins was humiliated by the Ravens' overpowering defense. He turned the ball over five times and posted a passer rating of 7.1
5. Jim Kelly, Bills, XXVI: A pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes lifted his passer rating to a deceivingly high 44.8. His four interceptions led to 17 points, and he also fumbled three times. Teammates didn't help, dropping nine passes.
6. Rich Gannon, Raiders, XXXVII: He called it the worst game of his 17-year career. Three of his five interceptions were returned long distances for touchdowns. His former coach, Jon Gruden, had his defense fully prepared.
7. Fran Tarkenton, Vikings, IX: Passed for 102 yards, failed to scramble for a single yard, threw three interceptions, and handled the ball poorly. Tarkenton was hemmed into the pocket and often couldn't see to throw downfield.
8. Ron Jaworski, Eagles, XV: Posted the best regular season of his 15-year career but was awful in the Super Bowl. He appeared to press, telegraphed his passes, and suffered three interceptions.
9. Joe Theismann, Redskins, XVIII: Rendered ineffective by the Raiders' bump-and-run cornerbacks and heavy pass rush. The regular-season MVP, he could muster only a 45.3 passer rating in the Super Bowl. His arm limitations showed up on a windy night.
10. Billy Kilmer, Redskins, VII: The unbeaten Dolphins were ecstatic that it was the overachieving Kilmer and not injured Sonny Jurgensen behind center. His longest completion was 15 yards and his passer rating was 19.6.
Coming Friday: Top 10 Super Bowl upsets
Bob McGinn, the author of "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," has covered the Green Bay Packers and the NFL for 30 years, including the last 19 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He has been Pro Football Weekly's correspondent in Green Bay since the early 1980s. McGinn spent 4½ years interviewing more than 150 head coaches, assistant coaches, players, general managers, scouts and owners, as well as studying tapes of every game, in preparation for writing his book. His objective was to break down why each game was won. "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," published by MVP Books, is available at mvpbooks.com, Amazon.com and book stores across the country. It contains more than 25 top-10 lists, a comprehensive statistical summary of each game and a list of Super Bowl records.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — One of the most productive kickers in NFL history found himself in an interesting situation late in the NFC championship game. With a Super Bowl berth on the line, the Saints were setting themselves up to kick a potential game-winning field goal.
But it would not be 22-year veteran John Carney — who had done the majority of the kicking for the Saints this season — attempting the biggest boot in franchise history. Instead, it was Garrett Hartley, the youngster who began the 2009 season serving a four-game suspension for testing positive for a banned stimulant, a situation that opened the door for Carney's return to New Orleans, where he played from 2001-06.
The outcome is well known. Hartley connected on the 40-yarder in overtime, advancing the Saints to their first Super Bowl berth.
Did Carney long to be the one making the kick?
"Sure, yeah. I was trying to wrestle Garrett's cleats away from him and get on the field myself, but his helmet was too big," kidded Carney. "No, I was really excited and pleased for Garrett. We had worked for over a month on game-winning kicks, and what you want to be focused on and the preparation leading up to the kick, because he had missed a kick against Tampa in December, almost from the same spot on the field. So he has prepared for that. He responded real well. He was ready for it during the course of the game, and when the opportunity came up, he responded like a champ."
Part of the reason that Hartley was so well prepared is because Carney has been so generous this season, helping to mentor a young kicker who had to endure some trying times in 2009.
When the kick heard round the world was booted, Carney wasn't even an option to use. He had lost his roster spot in late December, when the Saints opted to free up a roster spot by releasing their No. 2 kicker. But the Saints didn't banish Carney. Instead, they hired him to serve as their kicking consultant, allowing him to continue in a role that he already had been serving while also being an active player.
The 45-year-old Carney and the 23-year-old Hartley formed a bond in training camp, when the pair worked closely together. Carney was signed by the Saints once it was learned that Hartley would serve a four-game suspension to open the season after testing positive for Adderall, a banned prescription drug that Hartley said he took to help him stay awake during a long drive from Dallas to New Orleans.
The original plan called for Carney to kick in the first four games, perhaps a little longer, all the while helping teach some tricks of the trade to the Hartley. Carney wound up kicking in 11 games this season, hitting on 13-of-17 field-goal attempts compared to Hartley's 9-of-11 regular-season FG attempts.
Hartley embraced the situation early on, knowing there was much to learn from such an accomplished kicker.
"He's been such a tremendous attribute," Hartley said Wednesday. "Being a young player in this league, him knowing the ins and outs, every little secret, whatever it might be, from what type of shoes you need to be wearing to how you grind them down to how we go about pregame wind and the weather conditions. Every little possible detail you can think about on the field, he's been there."
In his latest role, Carney is with the Saints every day, working with not only Hartley, but also rookie P Thomas Morestead. He runs with the two kicking specialists. He works out with them. He watches film with them. Anything and everything he can do to help them improve, he does.
"My relationship with Garrett and Thomas Morestead, it really started back in training camp," said Carney. "I was working with both of them as a fellow player, but also as a seasoned veteran that could pass along some experiences, some wisdom to them because they're both young in the league. And that's kind of continued throughout the course of the season. Week 14, I went from player to consultant completely, so now I've been able to watch more film with them. I still work out with them, train with them, and we discuss more situations that could arise. Whatever experiences I've had in my career, I do my best to share with them. And it's been a great relationship the three of us have, and Jason Kyle, who is our long-snapper, is also a very seasoned veteran. The whole mix has been very beneficial."
Saints special-teams coach Greg McMahon recognizes what a unique situation he has working for him.
"What a great opportunity for us," said McMahon. "John is our kicking consultant. John Carney is working with a rookie punter and a (young) kicker. He really just helps with our practices and technique, the fundamentals of kicking and punting. He's been a great resource for me. I've enjoyed coaching John in '06 and now this year. He's really brought a lot to the table just from the experience standpoint."
Carney has not only served an on-field mentor, he has been there for Hartley off the field, as well.
"(He's been there) whenever I was going through the emotional ups and downs that I've had this season," Hartley said. "I remember talking to him during my suspension, after I missed the (potential game-winning) kick against Tampa (in Week 16), him coming over and hanging out and bringing me a pizza in my apartment, to congratulating me after last week's game."
While Carney would have loved the opportunity to kick the game-winner in the NFC title game, he did his best to contribute to the win by preparing Hartley for anything that could happen as time wound down in the game. Hartley contends that Carney played a big role in successfully connecting on the field goal.
"Talking with me with about three or four minutes left in the fourth quarter," said Hartley, recalling what helped him prepare. "Telling me, 'OK, Hart, take yourself out of the game, you're still focused, but you're only determined on whatever you can do to help the team win. So visualize the opportunity and the situation that might arise, and basically just go through your motions.' We learned from the Tampa kick that I rushed myself. I didn't get the follow-through that I wanted because I did. So I just told myself two little things, just kind of relax and stay back and keep my head down and things worked out."
With Hartley now firmly entrenched as the Saints' kicker of the future, there is little chance of Carney returning to New Orleans as a player next season. Nevertheless, Carney isn't calling it a career as an active player. He hopes to return to the field as a player in 2010.
"Well, I'm looking forward to my career as a player," said Carney. "If consultant is in the mix somewhere down the road, I'd be very pleased to do that. I enjoy doing this. But I would like to continue to play."
McMahon has little doubt that Carney still has a future on the field, noting he can "absolutely" still kick in the NFL.
"He's got 22 years in this league," said McMahon. "He's very fit. He was looking at film probably when he was a rookie. I mean, I would not put a ceiling on that guy."
Longtime Miami Herald sports columnist Edwin Pope put it this way: "I always laugh when I see an article calling someone a future Hall of Famer. There's no such thing until the guy gets in the Hall of Fame." It's a fair statement; after all, there exists a number of one-time "future Hall of Famers" who played long ago and are still awaiting their ticket to Canton. Some may never get there.
With all due respect to Pope, who has served on the Hall of Fame selection committee for more than 30 years, some active players can be called future Hall of Famers without hesitation. The rest of the game's finest, however … well, time will tell. At present, there are more than 100 NFL players with an argument for being on the path to Canton (at some point along the way, anyhow).
All of the players considered below entered the league in 2005 or before, giving them at least five years of work to showcase.
LOCKS — Legends that might as well start getting measured for their suit coat.
QB Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings — Favre's career numbers and Super Bowl title will gain him entrance on the first ballot. All the rest is gravy.
QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts — Ditto.
QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots — More Super Bowl wins than either Favre or Manning, and one of the game's most likeable (and marketable) players.
QB Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals — It will likely take Warner a few ballots before getting his due, but ultimately voters will not be able to deny his legacy. Without his stint in Arizona he'd be 50-50.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers — Although he has started to fade, Tomlinson's body of work speaks for itself.
WR Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills — The drama, the headaches ... who cares? Owens produced wherever he went.
WR Randy Moss, New England Patriots — Same as Owens, Moss' impact on the game is undeniable. Only Jerry Rice was more dominant at the position.
TE Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons — Likely to be the first of the "modern" tight ends to be inducted - and the best of the bunch.
LB Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens — The finest linebacker of his era, maybe of all-time.
LB Junior Seau, New England Patriots — Played for so long that voters might forget how dominant he was in his prime. No matter, he's a lock.
CB Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos — One of the best pure athletes ever to play the cornerback position.
ON THEIR WAY — Elite players on pace to finish up in Canton, each with a 75 percent chance or better.
QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints — Whether New Orleans ever wins a Super Bowl matters not; voters will remember what Brees did to rebuild the town.
QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles — The Hall of Fame demands that its quarterbacks be winners. McNabb may not have the crown jewel (yet), but he has taken his teams to five conference title games (same number as Favre, more than Manning or Brady).
QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers — Only Jim Plunkett has two Super Bowl wins at quarterback without a yellow coat in his closet. Thing is, Roethlisberger's career numbers will be far better than Plunkett's, and he's not done competing for rings yet.
WR Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers — Roethlisberger's favorite target does everything well — possession, big-play — and happens to be one of the league's greatest all-time blocking receivers.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals — Fitzgerald has another 10 years in him, but he only needs a couple of more big years to enter the "lock" category.
WR Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers — One of the quietest wide receivers to ever play, Bruce's career numbers are where they need to be (second-most receiving yards).
WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts — Marvin Harrison is a "lock," and Wayne is close to being the same. Next year he'll likely reach the magical levels of 700 receptions and 10,000 yards.
OT Walter Jones, Seattle Seahawks — A case could be made that Jones has been the finest left tackle of his era, surpassing Jonathan Ogden and Orlando Pace.
OG Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota Vikings — Jones' counterpart for a number of years in Seattle, Hutchinson has been every bit as dominant in Minnesota.
OG Alan Faneca, New York Jets — From 2001-08 he made the Pro Bowl each year; rivals Hutchinson as the best of this era.
DE Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts — Helped to revolutionize the defensive end position. His career sack total probably will get him in unless something derails his career moving forward.
DE Jason Taylor, Miami Dolphins — Taylor was one of the game's best pass rushers for a period of time, and a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
CB Charles Woodson, Green Bay Packers — The last few years have preserved Woodson's legacy. His recent defensive MVP win might just have pushed him into Canton.
S Ed Reed, Baltimore Ravens — Beyond the Pro Bowls and notoriety, voters will remember that Reed made big plays on defense.
PK Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts — The Hall of Fame does not care for specialists but Vinatieri is the greatest clutch kicker of all-time.
MAYBE, MAYBE NOT — Stars that have had a splendid career, just maybe not Hall of Fame caliber. Each has a 50-50 shot at best.
QB Kerry Collins, Tennessee Titans — The good news: has more than 38,000 passing yards. The bad news: so does Dave Krieg.
RB Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins — Proved in Washington that he wasn't just another Denver system back. Colorful personality will earn favor but maybe not enough.
RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets — A journeyman who has turned his career around. Likely to eclipse 10,000 rushing yards next season.
RB Fred Taylor, New England Patriots — Ranks No. 15 on the all-time rushing list. Everyone ahead of him is either already in the Hall or soon will be. The case won't be that clear-cut for Taylor, though.
RB Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns — His 2,000-yard season aside, Lewis was inconsistent and an average back for much of career.
WR Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars — Ranks 10th all-time in yards and 11th in catches. If he plays long enough to catch 1,000 passes that should be enough.
WR Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers — Don't scoff; Driver will own every career Packers receiving record but one (touchdowns — Don Hutson) when he's done.
WR Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals — He will reach 10,000 yards, but many believe he talks a bigger game than he plays.
WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals — His catch and yardage totals are great, but voters will consider his constant discontent. Career touchdown numbers are lacking.
WR Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers — Ditto.
OT Orlando Pace, Chicago Bears — Was the cornerstone to St. Louis' memorable offenses of the early 2000s. May have had a better chance before going to Chicago.
C Kevin Mawae, Tennessee Titans — Was a standout for both the Jets and Titans. Seven Pro Bowls.
C Matt Birk, Baltimore Ravens — Has six Pro Bowls under his belt.
DE Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers — Even with four Pro Bowls and 81 sacks, Peppers' career has been somewhat of a disappointment.
DT Kevin Williams, Minnesota Vikings — It's conceivable that one day Williams could become one of the few tackles with 100 career sacks.
DT Jamal Williams, San Diego Chargers — Not the "numbers" guy that Kevin Williams is, Jamal Williams does the thankless things tackles are supposed to do.
DT Richard Seymour, Oakland Raiders — Was considered the centerpiece to New England's title-winning teams. Moving to Oakland has taken a little of the luster off.
LB Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears — Racks up tackles and creates turnovers just like Dick Butkus, only Butkus' legacy is already cemented; Urlacher has a long way to go yet.
LB Zach Thomas, Kansas City Chiefs — One-time tackling machine who has held onto the game a few years too long.
LB Joey Porter, Miami Dolphins — His mouth gets him in trouble, but he'll likely reach 100 sacks and is someone voters are not going to forget.
LB London Fletcher, Washington Redskins — Not making a Pro Bowl has actually helped his Hall chances as it has brought more attention to his level of consistency at St. Louis, Buffalo and Washington.
LB Terrell Suggs, Baltimore Ravens — Started on a tear, but his sack numbers continue to decline.
S Brian Dawkins, Denver Broncos — Has some of the most diehard supporters of any player. His impact is difficult to measure.
S Darren Sharper, New Orleans Saints — Smells interceptions and ranks high on the career list. The picks alone, though, will not be enough.
S Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers — If he can remain healthy, he has enough respect from around the league to leave the game with Hall of Fame credibility.
DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH — Players that have not been able to sustain a level of success consistent with a Hall of Fame career. Each has a 25 percent chance at best.
QB Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers — Was inches away from a Super Bowl ring. Miles away from Canton.
QB Daunte Culpepper, Detroit Lions — Was fantastic when throwing to Randy Moss in Minnesota. Was ugly when throwing everywhere else.
QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams — Will be blamed for the end of the "Greatest Show on Turf" era in St. Louis.
QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks — Got to a Super Bowl and has six 3,000-plus-yard seasons. That should help him join the infinite number of retired quarterbacks still waiting for their due respect.
QB Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins — Cerebral quarterback who has made a career of proving others wrong. Maybe he can prove this list wrong. … Nah, doubt it.
RB Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers — Should be focused on earning his starting job back right now, not yellow-colored coats.
RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles — Versatility is a gift to the Eagles' offense, but it doesn't produce the grind-it-out numbers Hall of Fame voters are looking for in running backs.
RB Larry Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals — Two good years does not a Hall of Famer make.
RB Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins — A great comeback story, but voters will always think of his pot hiatus above anything else.
WR Joey Galloway, ex-New England Patriots — Speed receiver who thrived in Seattle, Dallas and Tampa Bay. Has Cliff Branch syndrome (without the titles to go with it).
WR Braylon Edwards, New York Jets — Big-play receiver that has made little happen since entering the league.
WR Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens — Has enough yards (11,089) but will be looked upon as someone who was very good for a long time but never one of the game's very best.
WR Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals — Peaked in his late 20s, with little to show since that time.
DE Trevor Pryce, Baltimore Ravens — Steady for Denver for many years but never really an elite pass-rushing threat.
DE Jevon Kearse, Tennessee Titans — Ran wild as a rookie with 14½ sacks. Too bad he never reached that level of play again.
LB Julian Peterson, Detroit Lions — A very solid do-it-all linebacker. Not a Hall of Famer, though.
LB Keith Brooking, Dallas Cowboys — A passionate defensive leader that made it to five Pro Bowls but really never earned the national respect a Hall of Famer needs.
LB Takeo Spikes, San Francisco 49ers — Was outstanding at Cincinnati and Buffalo but then tailed off by the age of 30.
LB Mike Vrabel, Kansas City Chiefs — His place on the Patriots' Super Bowl teams will get him on the list of candidates, but beyond that, his imprint was minimal.
LB James Farrior, Pittsburgh Steelers — Found himself later in his career when he went to Pittsburgh — probably too late.
LB Keith Bulluck, Tennessee Titans — Was the defensive leader for Tennessee's best squads but made just one Pro Bowl.
CB Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — His five Pro Bowls and 25 career sacks help the cause, but Barber never reached the level of stardom needed for Canton.
CB Al Harris, Green Bay Packers — Became one of the game's finest cover corners after departing Philadelphia. The presence of Woodson will hurt Harris' chances (probably never a serious candidate).
CB Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings — Has very few interceptions because teams have refused to throw at him during his 11 years. Very solid, just not in the same category as Bailey, Woodson and the other corners that have made the cut.
S Adrian Wilson, Arizona Cardinals — Exists a few notches below former Cardinals standout DB Aeneas Williams, who is a fringe candidate himself.
NEED MORE DATA — Players whose legacy has yet to be decided. Each has Hall of Fame qualities on their incomplete Canton résumé.
QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys — Has the most visible job in all of sports and so far has held up. A couple of more years like 2009 and a Super Bowl win could be enough to push Romo in.
QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals — Will have good numbers but needs that ring to become relevant.
QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers — Ditto.
QB Eli Manning, New York Giants — Has the name and a Super Bowl ring. His numbers are now under a microscope.
QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers — Only NFL quarterback to throw for 4,000-plus yards in his first two years as a starter and he successfully replaced a legend. Of course, Rodgers needs to continue his pace for another half-dozen years before the talk can get serious.
RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams — If voters are fair about it, Jackson has produced as both a receiver and rusher in a failing system. Voters are rarely ever that fair.
RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals — All depends on which Benson we see for the rest of his career — the Chicago bust or the back that busted out for the Bengals this year.
RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins — A versatile terror in Miami's "Wildcat" offense, Brown is too often hurt.
WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans — More and more it's looking like Johnson is a receiver with rare gifts. He has succeeded on some awful Houston squads.
WR Wes Welker, New England Patriots — The best possession receiver of this era, Welker has caught 100-plus passes in each of the past three seasons. If he returns healthy and continues, he'll warrant attention.
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks — His last six seasons have been on a Hall of Fame pace, but there is reason to doubt he'll continue that pace in Seattle.
TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys — Probably the best all-around tight end in the game today, Witten's stock should only continue to rise with Romo and WR Miles Austin to help him.
TE Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints — Lacks Hall of Fame numbers but plays with a bad-boy flair that fans and media somehow find appealing.
TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers — Followed Gonzalez and took it up a notch, making the tight end his team's primary target for a number of years. The additions of WRs Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd could help Gates prolong his productivity.
TE Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Maybe the most athletic tight end the game has seen. Too bad fans don't get to see that athleticism produce on a weekly basis.
DE Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings — Through six seasons he has averaged 12 sacks. In today's game, though, he'll need 125-plus career sacks to earn consideration.
DT Albert Haynesworth, Washington Redskins — Attitude, more than anything, could be Haynesworth's downfall.
DT Darnell Dockett, Arizona Cardinals — A game-changing tackle with the potential to be one of the game's all-time greats.
DE Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts — Overshadowed by Freeney for much of his career, Mathis is just now starting to get a little attention.
LB James Harrison, Pittsburgh Steelers — Has the big-game performance (Super Bowl XLIII) that helps get players inducted. All he needs now is to prolong his career in Pittsburgh's linebacker-friendly system.
LB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys — The most intimidating pass rusher in the game today. If the same can be said in two or three years, Ware will be on his way.
LB Lance Briggs, Chicago Bears — Has shown he can perform without Urlacher. Needs more years of 90-plus tackles before he is a serious candidate.
CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland Raiders — As accomplished as Asomugha is, few fans outside of Oakland are aware of him. Needs a new P.R. man.
CB Asante Samuel, Philadelphia Eagles — Great cover corner with a pair of rings. Needs more career interceptions to earn consideration.
S Bob Sanders, Indianapolis Colts — When he plays, he is special. Problem is, he's played just 47 games in six seasons.
Friday: Hall of Fame selection no easy task
PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue now ready for mailing and a third issue focusing on underclassmen to be published in the next few weeks. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.
1. Timmy Smith, RB, Redskins, XXII: Joe Gibbs played the right hunch, giving Smith his first start over the aging George Rogers. He broke loose for a Super Bowl-record 204 yards.
2. Kurt Warner, QB, Rams, XXXIV: Warner was a 28-year-old nobody when an injury to Trent Green during the 1999 exhibition season landed Warner the starting job. Playing for a base salary of $254,000, he was the MVP of the regular season and the Super Bowl.
3. Jeff Hostetler, QB, Giants, XXV: When Phil Simms went down with a season-ending foot injury in Week 14, the Giants turned to Hostetler. "He was an example of preparation and patience, of being ready when your number's called," said Bill Belichick, then the Giants' defensive coordinator.
4. Terry Bradshaw, QB, Steelers, IX: It was Bradshaw's fifth season in the league, and for the first six games of 1974, he was backing up Joe Gilliam. But when Chuck Noll turned to Bradshaw in Week 7, a Hall of Fame career kicked into gear.
5. Max McGee, WR, Packers, I: In January, 1967, McGee was two years removed from his last good season and playing out the string of a fine career. Then Boyd Dowler got hurt and "Maxie the Taxi" entered football lore.
6. Corey Webster, CB, Giants, XLII: Benched three weeks into the season and inactive for two more games, Webster got his chance after injuries struck the Giants. When the playoffs began, he suddenly played like a shut-down corner.
7. Ottis Anderson, RB, Giants, XXV: Twice a Pro Bowl pick in St. Louis, Anderson was on the backside of his career and losing playing time until rookie Rodney Hampton broke his leg in the playoff opener. Anderson was named Super Bowl MVP.
8. Vince Ferragamo, QB, Rams, XIV: The Super Bowl was only the eighth start of Ferragamo's erratic career. After starter Pat Haden went down, Ferragamo was the Rams' third option. He then directed two playoff victories and nearly notched a third against the vaunted Steelers.
9. Bruce Wilkerson, OLT, Packers, XXXI: Wilkerson was handed the starting job in Week 16 when top pick John Michels flopped. Protecting Brett Favre's blind side, he allowed only one sack in his four starts.
10. Larry Brown, CB, Cowboys, XXX: A backup in his fifth season, Brown became the starter when injuries and a suspension gave him an opening. After intercepting two passes and being named MVP, Brown signed a five-year, $12.5 million deal with the Raiders.
Bob McGinn, the author of "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," has covered the Green Bay Packers and the NFL for 30 years, including the last 19 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He has been Pro Football Weekly's correspondent in Green Bay since the early 1980s. McGinn spent 4½ years interviewing more than 150 head coaches, assistant coaches, players, general managers, scouts and owners, as well as studying tapes of every game, in preparation for writing his book. His objective was to break down why each game was won. "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," published by MVP Books, is available at mvpbooks.com, Amazon.com and book stores across the country. It contains more than 25 top-10 lists, a comprehensive statistical summary of each game and a list of Super Bowl records.
1. Eugene Robinson, FS, Falcons, XXXIII: Arrested for soliciting a prostitute not far from the team hotel on the Saturday night before the game.
2. Barret Robbins, C, Raiders, XXXVII: Went on a weekend bender in Tijuana and wasn't allowed to play after he got back.
3. Stanley Wilson, RB, Bengals, XXIII: News of his cocaine binge was delivered to players at the Saturday night meeting.
4. Scott Norwood, K. Bills, XXV: All things considered, he had about a 50-50 shot from 47 yards to win the game. He missed wide right by about 4 feet.
5. Jackie Smith, TE, Cowboys, XIII: Smith's drop of a 3-yard pass in the end zone didn't lose it for the Cowboys, but it surely didn't help.
6. Asante Samuel, CB, Patriots, XLII: Nobody would have ever heard of David Tyree if the sure-handed Samuel had held on to Eli Manning's wayward sideline pass earlier that drive.
7. Cliff Harris, FS, Cowboys, X: By taunting Pittsburgh kicker Roy Gerela after a missed field goal, Harris incited the Steelers to beat the Cowboys.
8. Earl Morrall, QB, Colts, III: Everyone could see Jimmy Orr wide open on the fateful flea-flicker play — everyone except Morrall, who threw elsewhere and was picked off.
9. Thomas Henderson, LB, Cowboys, XIII: A flag already had been thrown, but Henderson felt compelled to rough Terry Bradshaw and taunt Franco Harris, who turned his rage into a touchdown on the next play.
10. Thurman Thomas, RB, Bills, XXVI: According to Marv Levy, Thomas put down his helmet next to others during the National Anthem. When a defensive player walked off with Thomas' helmet, he missed the first two plays of the game.
Coming Wednesday: Top 10 unexpected Super Bowl heroes
Bob McGinn, the author of "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," has covered the Green Bay Packers and the NFL for 30 years, including the last 19 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He has been Pro Football Weekly's correspondent in Green Bay since the early 1980s. McGinn spent 4½ years interviewing more than 150 head coaches, assistant coaches, players, general managers, scouts and owners, as well as studying tapes of every game, in preparation for writing his book. His objective was to break down why each game was won. "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," published by MVP Books, is available at mvpbooks.com, Amazon.com and book stores across the country. It contains more than 25 top-10 lists, a comprehensive statistical summary of each game and a list of Super Bowl records.
MIAMI — "Hey, brother, any old bones still hiding in there?"
"In there" is a construction job at 14th Avenue and 6th, city of Miami, and a man with a tough face and plastic hat is patrolling his stretch of the fence. Checkpoint Charlie.
"A few palm trees," he says. "Other than that, it's pretty much gone."
The Orange Bowl's former address. Coming soon, the Marlins' baseball yard — fresh paint and support beams and all the trespassing signs. Everything on schedule?
"It was. Then things backed up. Money. They're still saying 2012, but ..."
"How about a look around? Five minutes?"
"Make it two. There's not much to see. Just hurry it up." So you hurry.
Ghosts of an ancient marquee — The City of Miami Welcomes You To The Orange Bowl. On special days, it was Welcome to the Super Bowl. Five of them kicked off here. Then the Dolphins moved out. Then the University of Miami Hurricanes. Then they tore it down.
But the skeletons are still around. They're still creaking. You just gotta know where to dig.
Super Bowl II
You try to pry out the game-day scoops from those old Packers — matchups, line play, fracturing Oakland's pass-catch operation — but all they want to give you is Vince Lombardi. The heaviness around the team before his official goodbye. George S. Patton, relieved of command, turning over his troops with a final, crisp salute.
"During the week we sensed this was gonna be Coach's last one," says OLT Bob Skoronski. "It came out in a lot of ways, different statements he'd make. You knew the game was so important to him. Lombardi felt it was easy to achieve a championship but much harder to keep one. And here we were trying to keep a third straight. He was so proud of that.
"A few years later, Fuzzy Thurston and I flew to a D.C. hospital to see him. He was a shadow physically of what he was. Gaunt. He looked up to see who was coming and reached his hand out, half-clenched, and it was just trembling. We both took it. Then he whispered, 'I hate to have you see me this way.'
"That was the only thing he said."
Packers 33, Raiders 14.
Super Bowl III
A treasure of first-time encounters. AFL-NFL. Ewbank vs. Shula. Namath digging in against the rowdy Baltimore pass rush. And, pregame, in the lobby of Miami's Americana Hotel, it was Curt Gowdy vs. Howard Cosell.
"Al DeRogatis and I were leaving to do the game for NBC," Gowdy remembered, "and Cosell was in the lobby. This was before he latched on to Muhammad Ali and 'Monday Night Football.' I heard someone yelling, 'Cowboy! Cowboy!' That was my nickname. Cosell was hurrying toward me."
"You know, Cowboy, I hate to see it today — the Colts will break Joe Willie Namath's legs."
"Well, nobody has broken them yet," Gowdy countered. "He has bad knees, but what the hell? Other teams were after him, too."
"They'll kill him. It's a disgrace matching these two teams up."
Cowboy heated up. "Howard — I think the Jets will give them a helluva game today."
The final swipe, right or wrong, was always Cosell's.
"Cowboy," he said, "you're just a shill for the commissioner."
Wrong. Jets 16, Colts 7.
Super Bowl V
"War is," Winston Churchill said, "mainly a catalogue of blunders." That's the forever stamp on Super Bowl V. Lost balls and errant missiles, the casualties of misfired adrenaline.
Dallas had finally thrust its way to an NFL title game, and Cowboys tailback Walt Garrison remembers that being swell enough for the team wearing the stars.
"Happy to be there," Garrison says. "That was our goal, a Super Bowl date. We'd played Green Bay back-to-back in title games and lost 'em both. So, in '70 we finally get past Frisco and at that point the season was over. Mission accomplished."
Tom Landry wrestled to keep corporate control, but the periphery was too big a sideshow for the fresh-eyed Cowboys.
"Even our practices were circus-like" Garrison says. "Somebody with the media was always wanting to talk to you. Landry was probably the only one that was focused. Such a big disappointment to him. He felt we had the better team, but we didn't prove it.
"After the game we wanted to play it over again. The Colts probably did too, the thing was so ugly."
Colts 16, Cowboys 13.
Super Bowl X
The trucks camped outside the Orange Bowl said CBS, which meant to TV watchers it'd be a Pat Summerall/Tom Brookshier championship call. With two minutes left they cut Brookie's microphone and sent him to the Pittsburgh locker room. Postgame duty. Steelers in the lead, 21-10.
"A couple of state troopers escorted me down," Brookshier remembers. "Sonny Jurgensen, who was going to help me with the postgame, had been out someplace before the game doing cocktails with Brigitte Bardot.
"We get there and they tell us to hide until the Steelers finish their team prayer. So they lock me, a cameraman and Jurgensen — who's half in the bag — in this closet.
"We can still hear the radio broadcast being played. All of a sudden it's, 'Staubach goes back ... here's the pass ... touchdown!' Everyone in the locker room runs back onto the field for the end of the game. Dallas is coming back, and we're locked in the closet! Great. How do we do a postgame show from here?"
With the big-game Steelers in town? No worries. Steelers 21, Cowboys 17.
Super Bowl XIII
An epic that still pains a lot of the old Cowboys — including their top safety, a killer named Cliff Harris.
"We over-prepared for the Steelers," Harris admits today. "Pittsburgh had a very basic, fundamental attack. Meanwhile, we ran very complicated defenses, lots of reads and shifts.
"I was very discouraged by the complexity of the schemes our coaches presented. They overloaded us. We overdid it, and as a result we weren't as physically aggressive as we needed to be. Three years earlier, in Super Bowl X, our scheme wasn't nearly as complex, and we played Pittsburgh much closer."
On Terry Bradshaw: "He kept things simple. Once I asked him, 'Were you keying on me or (LB) Lee Roy Jordan on that deep pass to (Lynn) Swann?' He said, 'Neither. I just looked at (John) Stallworth and if he was covered, I threw it to Swann.' I just shook my head and thought, 'Why the hell did we go through all that game planning then?' "
Steelers 35, Cowboys 31.
Super Bowl XXIII
What's seared in memory is that late Joe Montana rally ... high tension, fingernails in shreds, his clutch deliveries ... the Super Joe signature. But there's also a lingering pall from that game that's seldom discussed, buried by the Montana heroics, and that's the dead arm that Cincy QB Boomer Esiason went to battle with.
To win, the Bengals needed steady work from him. Not a mad-bomber day, just be heady and pinpoint. Feed 'em strikes. After all, Esiason came into the game riding a crest as 1988's league MVP. At his disposal stood a stockpile of fine Bengals components.
Instead, Esiason cracked. Left behind were the tracks of an out-of-sync quarterback — 11 completions in 25 attempts, 13 first downs, and a trio of FG drives plus one interception.
He looked uncomfortable in the pocket. He moved that way and he threw that way. Cincy needed a Curt Schilling to win that night; instead, they got Stan Belinda.
Montana earned the win ... and the save. 49ers 20, Bengals 16.
Super Bowl XXIX
It was something from the early days of Mike Tyson, the young pit bull raging his way out of the Albany and Atlantic City rings. Those crippling flurries, maiming in their violence, closing down the arena before the lights could warm. Bouts lasting 40 or 50 seconds. That was the feel of Chargers-49ers.
And over on the underdog's side, the corner men worked on San Diego's shoulders and pumped their mantra: "Hit and move, got it? ... Tire their legs. ... Lock that chin down. ... For God's sake, don't get careless out there."
Then the lightning haymaker - Steve Young to Jerry Rice, a 44-yard score that cracked the Chargers' jaw and spun them off into darkness. Game time elapsed: one minute, 24 seconds. San Francisco's day of devastation made it 11 consecutive wins for the NFC.
"It's not like we were possessed or anything," Niners CB Eric Davis said afterward. "The AFC is just a different brand of football. It's not like the NFC, not like us or Dallas."
49ers 49, Chargers 26.
Super Bowl XXXIII
Ignored, to this day, is the wizardry of Falcons QB Chris Chandler's 1998 season. Get this — 9.6 yards per attempt, 16.6 per catch. I mean, "wow" numbers. Greedy, palatial ones, somehow lost in history's blind spot.
However, none of that gaudiness flashed against the Broncos' bastions. Denver's goal was to choke off the long stuff and let Chandler eat his fill of the chippies — that is, when he could sidestep the crushing Broncos blitz schemes.
"Everything we did," says defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, "was designed to not let him go deep. ... We counted on our rush to disrupt his timing." Chandler's yards per pass/completion in the big game: 6.3/11.5. Timing: disrupted. Broncos 34, Falcons 19.
Super Bowl XLI
The Colts were a team for the taking. They'd been heavily pierced by New England in an exhaustive AFC title game and somehow survived, Peyton Manning lashing and driving his club to the winning points through force of sheer will. By the time they hit Miami, Indy was a spent club.
Game day. Both offenses cursed the skies — rain bursts. They soaked the Colts. Chicago drowned. Rex Grossman and his smallish hands, in a frantic paddle ashore. Ten Bears drives lasted four plays or fewer. Loose balls. Interceptions.
For dome-pampered Indy, a rainbow in disguise. Colts 29, Bears 17.
PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue now ready for mailing and a third issue focusing on underclassmen to be published in the next few weeks. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Peyton Manning was hesitant to heap praise on his young receivers this season. It was obvious. No matter how outstanding rookie Austin Collie or second-year pro Pierre Garcon played in a game, Manning almost always tried to temper the enthusiasm.
On more than one occasion this season, during on-the-field postgame interviews with network TV reporters, Manning tried to rein in the praise for his young teammates. When acknowledging a showing by one of the youngsters, he often would invoke the name of Reggie Wayne, noting that the veteran wideout's presence helped create the success of the younger players.
Even in his initial Super Bowl media session on Monday evening, before uttering the words "Austin" or "Pierre," he noted the great job that WR coach Clyde Christensen did in developing them. In the next sentence, Manning praised Wayne for the influence he had on the Collie and Garcon.
But on Tuesday, during the Colts' Media Day interview session, Manning couldn't help but break his own rules. How could he not? The pair had monstrous performances in the AFC championship game. Garcon ripped the Jets for 151 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches, and Collie contributed a dazzling seven receptions for 123 yards and a score.
Manning was downright effusive about what the neophyte receivers have meant to the club and offered his thoughts on why he believes they've been so successful.
"Guys like Austin and Pierre, they've been excellent when it comes to preparation all season long," said Manning, ignoring his normal instinct to hold back on the compliments. "Austin's a film watcher. Austin's in there on Tuesday watching film. I guarantee he'll be at the hotel watching film as soon as we get back. As a player that has an appreciation for studying film and doing the little things, I really value what Austin's brought to our team this year, and it's going to make his career very special."
Manning noted that in the later stages of the season, he no longer viewed Collie as a kid who was drafted into the NFL just nine months ago.
"There's a fine line there. The truth of it is, we don't really treat him like a rookie," Manning said. "We don't really allow him, 'Hey, you're young. We'll let you make this mistake.' Because we're going to say, "Hey, you're in the NFL. You're a big boy now. You're a grown man. This is what we expect you to do.' Is it fair? Probably not. But it's the way it is. And he's been great about that. He doesn't make excuses. He doesn't say, 'It's too much.' He says, 'Hey, I should have known that. I'll try to do better next time.' That's all you want in a guy, that it matters to him, it means something to him. He feels bad when he does something wrong. You understand that's going to happen. So I really appreciate his attitude."
Manning admitted that away from the glare of television cameras and out of earshot of reporters, he will counsel and encourage his young targets.
"As an older player, I do put my arm around him sometimes and say, 'Hey, you're doing good, you're doing good.' I try to keep him humble. I try to limit his interviews. It's going to be hard to do this week. I can't keep my eye on him all the time this week. But I try to keep him humble. But he's got a good attitude. He loves football. He loves the game. And you watch him block out there, you watch he and Pierre block. Any receiver that's blocking well loves football. And I appreciate that."
Wayne eagerly joined Manning in the Media Day Collie-Garcon lovefest, heaping praise on the young duo.
"They've been big for us," Wayne said. "They've stepped up to the plate all year, making things happen. They work so hard. They want to do well. Every time you see them in meetings, they're taking notes and doing whatever it takes to be good. That's all you can ask for, guys that take time out of their busy schedule and put all the focus into watching film and going on the field and making things happen. They've shown up for us. One thing about them is they've been pretty healthy all year and they've been able to have an opportunity to make things happen, so we're going to need them one more time this year."
For his part, Collie is thankful to have earned the trust of Manning and acknowledges playing for a demanding quarterback like the one he does has helped him achieve success so early in his career. He believes both he and Garcon set the tone for such contributions this season all the way back in training camp.
"I think we both showed (we could contribute) during training camp, and with our hard work," Collie said. "Pierre and I take it seriously, that we both wanted to come in and contribute, especially with what happened with Anthony (Gonzalez) when he got injured. We made sure that there wasn't that much of a drop-off. You always have to prepare just in case something like that happened, and it did."
It all comes back to the preparation that Manning noted in the first place. You can be sure that Manning will stay on his young receivers well into the future, likely resorting back to his more measured approach when it comes to compliments after the Super Bowl hoopla passes. And it's a safe bet that approach will pay off for Collie and Garcon — and the Colts — as they continue their NFL careers.
Here's a roundup of interesting facts and figures for Super Bowl XLIV:
Saints vs. Colts
NO 1st OFF; IND 18th DEF
NO 6th RUN; IND 24th VS. RUN
NO 4th PASS; IND 14th VS. PASS
NO 1st PTS; IND 8th PTS ALLOWED
IND 9th OFF; NO 25th DEF
IND 32nd RUN; NO 21st VS. RUN
IND 2nd PASS; NO 26th VS. PASS
IND 7th PTS; NO 20th PTS ALLOWED
IND 13th TO/TA; NO 3rd TO/TA
DREW BREES AVERAGED 8.5 YDS PER COMPLETION IN REGULAR SEASON BUT ONLY 7.0 YDS IN POSTSEASON.
BREES HAS THROWN 6 TDS AND NO INTS IN '09 PLAYOFFS.
PEYTON MANNING HAS BEEN SACKED 4 TIMES IN TWO PLAYOFF GAMES AFTER BEING SACKED JUST 10 TIMES IN 16 REGULAR-SEASON GAMES.
NEITHER MATT STOVER (5-OF-5) NOR GARRETT HARTLEY (2-OF-2) HAS MISSED A FIELD GOAL IN POSTSEASON.
THE FEWEST POINTS SCORED IN A SECOND HALF IN SUPER BOWL HISTORY IS 7 (SUPER BOWLS VII, XXII).
AUSTIN COLLIE HAS CAUGHT A TD PASS IN 5-OF-7 GAMES DATING BACK TO THE REGULAR SEASON.
IND HELD CHI TO 11 FIRST DOWNS, TIED FOR THIRD-FEWEST IN SUPER BOWL HISTORY, IN SUPER BOWL XLI.
NO ALLOWED MIN TO CONVERT 7-OF-12 3rd DOWNS IN NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.
NO 4-1 ON NATURAL GRASS THIS SEASON; IND 5-0.
IND COMMITTED 3 TURNOVERS IN LAST APPEARANCE IN SUPER BOWL. IND WAS ALSO FLAGGED FOR 6 PENALTIES AND BOTCHED AN EXTRA POINT.
REGGIE BUSH HAS FUMBLED 5 TIMES THIS SEASON, LOSING 3.
BUSH HAS RETURNED 5 TDS FOR PUNTS IN HIS CAREER (INCLUDING PLAYOFFS).
IND RUSHED FOR 191 YDS VS. CHI IN SUPER BOWL XLI; IND AVERAGED NFL-LOW 80.9 YDS ON GROUND PER GAME IN 2009.
THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A SCORELESS HALF IN SUPER BOWL HISTORY.
COLTS ARE 2-1 ALL-TIME IN THE SUPER BOWL.
NO HAS SCORED 30+ PTS IN 11-OF-18 GAMES INCLUDING PLAYOFFS.
ROBERT MEACHAM. WHO CAUGHT 45-722-9 IN REGULAR SEASON, HAS CAUGHT JUST 2-19-0 IN PLAYOFFS.
PIERRE GARCON LEADS IND IN RECEIVING IN POSTSEASON (16-185-2).
THE 16 INTS MANNING THREW IN THE REGULAR SEASON WERE HIS MOST SINCE 2002 (19).
DALLAS CLARK HAS CAUGHT 11-94-1 IN THE PLAYOFFS.
NO HAS MISSED 3 EXTRA POINTS THIS SEASON.
PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue now ready for mailing and a third issue focusing on underclassmen to be published in the next few weeks. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.
A look at the all-time Super Bowl standings and a recap of each of the 43 games played, including the game MVP:
| Team | W | L | Pct. | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 188 | 89 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 34 | 7 |
| New York Jets | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 16 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 48 | 21 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 1 | .857 | 168 | 133 |
| Green Bay | 3 | 1 | .750 | 127 | 76 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 1 | .750 | 83 | 87 |
| Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 1 | .667 | 52 | 46 |
| Dallas | 5 | 3 | .625 | 221 | 132 |
| Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders | 3 | 2 | .600 | 132 | 114 |
| Washington | 3 | 2 | .600 | 122 | 103 |
| New England | 3 | 3 | .500 | 121 | 165 |
| Chicago | 1 | 1 | .500 | 63 | 39 |
| Kansas City | 1 | 1 | .500 | 33 | 42 |
| Miami | 2 | 3 | .400 | 74 | 103 |
| Denver | 2 | 4 | .333 | 115 | 206 |
| St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams | 1 | 2 | .333 | 59 | 67 |
| Arizona | 0 | 1 | .000 | 23 | 27 |
| Atlanta | 0 | 1 | .000 | 19 | 34 |
| Carolina | 0 | 1 | .000 | 29 | 32 |
| Seattle | 0 | 1 | .000 | 10 | 21 |
| San Diego | 0 | 1 | .000 | 26 | 49 |
| Tennessee | 0 | 1 | .000 | 16 | 23 |
| Cincinnati | 0 | 2 | .000 | 37 | 46 |
| Philadelphia | 0 | 2 | .000 | 31 | 51 |
| Buffalo | 0 | 4 | .000 | 73 | 139 |
| Minnesota | 0 | 4 | .000 | 34 | 95 |
| SB | Date | Winner (share) | Loser (share) | Score | Site | Attendance | Game MVP / Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLIII | 2-1-09 | Pittsburgh ($78,000) | Arizona ($40,000) | 27-23 | Tampa | 70,774 | WR Santonio Holmes / Pittsburgh |
| XLII | 2-3-08 | N.Y. Giants ($78,000) | New England ($40,000) | 17-14 | Glendale, Ariz. | 71,101 | QB Eli Manning / N.Y. Giants |
| XLI | 2-4-07 | Indianapolis ($73,000) | Chicago ($38,000) | 29-17 | Miami | 74,512 | QB Peyton Manning / Indianapolis |
| XL | 2-5-06 | Pittsburgh ($73,000) | Seattle ($38,000) | 21-10 | Detroit | 68,206 | WR Hines Ward / Pittsburgh |
| XXXIX | 2-6-05 | New England ($68,000) | Philadelphia ($36,500) | 24-21 | Jacksonville | 78,125 | WR Deion Branch / New England |
| XXXVIII | 2-1-04 | New England ($68,000) | Carolina ($36,500) | 32-29 | Houston | 71,525 | QB Tom Brady / New England |
| XXXVII | 1-26-03 | Tampa Bay ($63,000) | Oakland ($35,000) | 48-21 | San Diego | 67,603 | FS Dexter Jackson / Tampa Bay |
| XXXVI | 2-3-02 | New England ($63,000) | St. Louis ($34,500) | 20-17 | New Orleans | 72,922 | QB Tom Brady / New England |
| XXXV | 1-28-01 | Baltimore ($58,000) | N.Y. Giants ($34,500) | 34-7 | Tampa | 71,921 | LB Ray Lewis / Baltimore |
| XXXIV | 1-30-00 | St. Louis ($58,000) | Tennessee ($33,000) | 23-16 | Atlanta | 72,625 | QB Kurt Warner / St. Louis |
| XXXIII | 1-31-99 | Denver ($53,000) | Atlanta ($32,500) | 34-19 | Miami | 74,803 | QB John Elway / Denver |
| XXXII | 1-25-98 | Denver ($48,000) | Green Bay ($29,000) | 31-24 | San Diego | 68,912 | RB Terrell Davis / Denver |
| XXXI | 1-26-97 | Green Bay ($48,000) | New England ($29,000) | 35-21 | New Orleans | 72,301 | WR-RS Desmond Howard / Green Bay |
| XXX | 1-28-96 | Dallas ($42,000) | Pittsburgh ($27,000) | 27-17 | Tempe, Ariz. | 76,347 | CB Larry Brown / Dallas |
| XXIX | 1-29-95 | San Francisco ($42,000) | San Diego ($26,000) | 49-26 | Miami | 74,107 | QB Steve Young / San Francisco |
| XXVIII | 1-30-94 | Dallas ($38,000) | Buffalo ($23,500) | 30-13 | Atlanta | 72,817 | RB Emmitt Smith / Dallas |
| XXVII | 1-31-93 | Dallas ($36,000) | Buffalo ($18,000) | 52-17 | Pasadena | 98,374 | QB Troy Aikman / Dallas |
| XXVI | 1-26-92 | Washington ($36,000) | Buffalo ($18,000) | 37-24 | Minneapolis | 63,130 | QB Mark Rypien / Washington |
| XXV | 1-27-91 | N.Y. Giants ($36,000) | Buffalo ($18,000) | 20-19 | Tampa | 73,813 | RB Ottis Anderson / N.Y. Giants |
| XXIV | 1-28-90 | San Francisco ($36,000) | Denver ($18,000) | 55-10 | New Orleans | 72,919 | QB Joe Montana / San Francisco |
| XXIII | 1-22-89 | San Francisco ($36,000) | Cincinnati ($18,000) | 20-16 | Miami | 75,129 | WR Jerry Rice / San Francisco |
| XXII | 1-31-88 | Washington ($36,000) | Denver ($18,000) | 42-10 | San Diego | 73,302 | QB Doug Williams / Washington |
| XXI | 1-25-87 | N.Y. Giants ($36,000) | Denver ($18,000) | 39-20 | Pasadena | 101,063 | QB Phil Simms / N.Y. Giants |
| XX | 1-26-86 | Chicago ($36,000) | New England ($18,000) | 46-10 | New Orleans | 73,818 | DE Richard Dent / Chicago |
| XIX | 1-20-85 | San Francisco ($36,000) | Miami ($18,000) | 38-16 | Stanford, Calif. | 84,059 | QB Joe Montana / San Francisco |
| XVIII | 1-22-84 | L.A. Raiders ($36,000) | Washington ($18,000) | 38-9 | Tampa | 72,920 | RB Marcus Allen / L.A. Raiders |
| XVII | 1-30-83 | Washington ($36,000) | Miami ($18,000) | 27-17 | Pasadena | 103,667 | RB John Riggins / Washington |
| XVI | 1-24-82 | San Francisco ($18,000) | Cincinnati ($9,000) | 26-21 | Pontiac, Mich. | 81,270 | QB Joe Montana / San Francisco |
| XV | 1-25-81 | Oakland ($18,000) | Philadelphia ($9,000) | 27-10 | New Orleans | 76,135 | QB Jim Plunkett / Oakland |
| XIV | 1-20-80 | Pittsburgh ($18,000) | L.A. Rams ($9,000) | 31-19 | Pasadena | 103,985 | QB Terry Bradshaw / Pittsburgh |
| XIII | 1-21-79 | Pittsburgh ($18,000) | Dallas ($9,000) | 35-31 | Miami | 79,484 | QB Terry Bradshaw / Pittsburgh |
| XII | 1-15-78 | Dallas ($18,000) | Denver ($9,000) | 27-10 | New Orleans | 75,583 | DT Randy White, DE Harvey Martin / Dallas |
| XI | 1-9-77 | Oakland ($15,000) | Minnesota ($7,500) | 32-14 | Pasadena | 103,438 | WR Fred Biletnikoff / Oakland |
| X | 1-18-76 | Pittsburgh ($15,000) | Dallas ($7,500) | 21-17 | Miami | 80,187 | WR Lynn Swann / Pittsburgh |
| IX | 1-12-75 | Pittsburgh ($15,000) | Minnesota ($7,500) | 16-6 | New Orleans | 80,997 | RB Franco Harris / Pittsburgh |
| VIII | 1-13-74 | Miami ($15,000) | Minnesota ($7,500) | 24-7 | Houston | 71,882 | RB Larry Csonka / Miami |
| VII | 1-14-73 | Miami ($15,000) | Washington ($7,500) | 14-7 | Los Angeles | 90,182 | S Jake Scott / Miami |
| VI | 1-16-72 | Dallas ($15,000) | Miami ($7,500) | 24-3 | New Orleans | 81,023 | QB Roger Staubach / Dallas |
| V | 1-17-71 | Baltimore ($15,000) | Dallas ($7,500) | 16-13 | Miami | 79,204 | LB Chuck Howley / Dallas |
| IV | 1-11-70 | Kansas City ($15,000) | Minnesota ($7,500) | 23-7 | New Orleans | 80,562 | QB Len Dawson / Kansas City |
| III | 1-12-69 | N.Y. Jets ($15,000) | Baltimore ($7,500) | 16-7 | Miami | 75,389 | QB Joe Namath / N.Y. Jets |
| II | 1-14-68 | Green Bay ($15,000) | Oakland ($7,500) | 33-14 | Miami | 75,546 | QB Bart Starr / Green Bay |
| I | 1-15-67 | Green Bay ($15,000) | Kansas City ($7,500) | 35-10 | Los Angeles | 61,946 | QB Bart Starr / Green Bay |
1. Steve Spagnuolo, Giants, XLII: The Patriots had killed teams all season. The Giants and Spagnuolo had the perfect antidote.
2. Bill Belichick and Romeo Crennel, Patriots, XXXVI: Mug Marshall Faulk wherever he goes. Body Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. Don't blitz Kurt Warner. The "Greatest Show on Turf" ran aground.
3. Richie Petitbon and Larry Peccatiello, Redskins, XXVI: Used a nickel defense most of the way (CB Darrell Green played safety) and kept the Bills' top-ranked offense completely off-kilter.
4. George Seifert, 49ers, XIX: Could anybody stop Dan Marino? The 49ers did. In an almost unprecedented move, Seifert played a nickel defense over the last three quarters, and the "Marks Brothers" (Clayton and Duper) never got on track.
5. Gregg Williams, Titans, XXXIV: The Titans' 17th-ranked defense held the Rams' top-ranked offense to a standstill until Isaac Bruce escaped with that underthrown pass.
6. Greg Robinson, Broncos, XXXII: No one before or since has ever run more zero blitzes in a Super Bowl than Robinson. Brett Favre and the Packers adjusted to weak-side blitzing the next season, just not in time to save their budding dynasty.
7. Buddy Ryan, Bears, XX: The Patriots weren't exactly chopped liver, but playing at a fever pitch for their departing coordinator, the Bears suffocated Tony Eason and Co.
8. Bud Carson and George Perles, Steelers, IX: Using the stunt 4-3 drawn up by defensive-line coach Perles, the Steelers controlled the line of scrimmage and the Vikings in the chill of old Tulane Stadium.
9. Marvin Lewis, Ravens, XXXV: In the NFC Championship game, the Giants ran up 518 yards and 41 points against Minnesota. Against a Ravens' defense that had no weaknesses, the Giants settled for 152 yards and 7 points.
10. George Seifert, 49ers, XXIII: With six Pro Bowlers, Cincinnati had one of the league's most prolific offenses. Operating against a 49ers defense that seldom huddled and let LB Riki Ellison communicate the calls, the Bengals had their worst game of 1988.
Honorable Mentions: Ernie Stautner, Cowboys, VI; Dave Wannstedt, Cowboys, XXVII; Charlie Sumner, Raiders, XV; Chuck Studley, 49ers, XVI; Bob Zeman, Raiders, XI.
Bob McGinn, the author of "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," has covered the Green Bay Packers and the NFL for 30 years, including the last 19 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He has been Pro Football Weekly's correspondent in Green Bay since the early 1980s. McGinn spent 4½ years interviewing more than 150 head coaches, assistant coaches, players, general managers, scouts and owners, as well as studying tapes of every game, in preparation for writing his book. His objective was to break down why each game was won. "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," published by MVP Books, is available at mvpbooks.com, Amazon.com and book stores across the country. It contains more than 25 top-10 lists, a comprehensive statistical summary of each game and a list of Super Bowl records.
1. Ronnie Lott, S, 49ers, XXIII: Furious at his teammates for not playing better, Lott takes matters into his own hands. From deep in the middle, he charges up and crashes into Bengals RB Ickey Woods. "It was like a train wreck, or two rhinos hitting each other full force," 49ers CB Eric Wright said. "That hit set the standard for us."
2. Jack Tatum, S, Raiders, XI: Early in the fourth quarter, WR Sammy White hauls in an 18-yard pass from Fran Tarkenton. Tatum hits White under the chin with his helmet, sending White's helmet flying. White hangs onto the ball. "Tatum knocked him out," Oakland LB Ted Hendricks said. "I've got a great picture of that."
3. Larry Cole, DT, Cowboys, X: Terry Bradshaw's last pass is the game-winning 64-yard touchdown to Lynn Swann with 3:02 left. On the play, Cole drives his helmet into the left side of Bradshaw's jaw, and the quarterback is out before he hits the ground. Backup Terry Hanratty plays the last series for Pittsburgh.
4. Glen Edwards, S, Steelers, IX: Late in the first half, Fran Tarkenton throws on target 20 yards downfield to WR John Gilliam at the Pittsburgh 4-yard line. Edwards delivers a two-armed shot to Gilliam's head. When the tipped pass comes down, it's intercepted by CB Mel Blount.
5. Nick Buoniconti, LB, Dolphins, VIII: With a minute left in the first half, Vikings RB Oscar Reed tries to run off right tackle on fourth and 1 from the Miami 6. Buoniconti cuts inside of pulling guard Ed White, crushes Reed, and causes a fumble.
6. Doug Swift, LB, Dolphins, VII: On a Washington third down late in the first half, the Dolphins line up LB Bob Matheson outside and Swift inside. When the Redskins turn their protection toward Matheson, Swift shoots through untouched and buries QB Billy Kilmer, whose pass in the flat is intercepted by Nick Buoniconti.
7. Martin Mayhew, CB, Redskins, XXVI: Early in the fourth quarter, Jim Kelly scrambles to his right for 9 yards and is unloaded upon by Mayhew. Kelly appears to be out. He sits out a play and then returns, but his memory seems to be spotty after the game.
8. Bob Sanders, S, Colts, XLI: On a simple run up the middle by Bears RB Cedric Benson late in the first quarter, Sanders roars up from the deep middle and flattens Benson with a form tackle. The Colts recover the fumble, and it's the beginning of the end for the Bears.
9. Aaron Brown, DE, Chiefs, IV: With about five minutes left, Brown, a second-year starter, comes around the edge and slams Vikings QB Joe Kapp, causing a fumble that the Vikings recover. It is Kapp's final play of the game.
10. Ken Norton, LB, Cowboys, XXVII: On third and goal from the Dallas 1, Buffalo RB Kenneth Davis tries to run high against Norton, but the linebacker doesn't budge an inch. On the next series, Norton leaps over Thurman Thomas and hits Jim Kelly, forcing him from the game with a sprained knee.
Coming Wednesday: Top 10 defensive coaching jobs
Bob McGinn, the author of "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," has covered the Green Bay Packers and the NFL for 30 years, including the last 19 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He has been Pro Football Weekly's correspondent in Green Bay since the early 1980s. McGinn spent 4½ years interviewing more than 150 head coaches, assistant coaches, players, general managers, scouts and owners, as well as studying tapes of every game, in preparation for writing his book. His objective was to break down why each game was won. "The Ultimate Super Bowl Book," published by MVP Books, is available at mvpbooks.com, Amazon.com and book stores across the country. It contains more than 25 top-10 lists, a comprehensive statistical summary of each game and a list of Super Bowl records.
There isn't much that makes the Raiders' Shane Lechler squirm before attempting a punt. After 10 NFL seasons, 158 games, 778 punts, five Pro Bowl berths and five first-team All-Pro nods, he has handled just about every situation a punter possibly can encounter.
Chasing Sammy Baugh, however, is one of the few things that can rattle the steady leg of the 2009 Golden Toe award winner.
Lechler, the first punter to win the Golden Toe since 2001 and the first Raider to win it since Ray Guy in 1975, entered Week 16 with Baugh's 1940 record for gross punting average in a season in his sights. For most punters, Baugh's mark is untouchable. It was within Lechler's reach, however, in '09.
Bailing a bumbling Raiders offense out by booting the ball 70 yards or so was old hat for Lechler. The gravity of his pursuit caught up to him, though, in Week 16 at Cleveland.
He entered the game with a gross average of 51.47 and was on pace to break Baugh's record (51.40).
His first three punts traveled 53, 42 and 46 yards. He stepped onto the field a fourth time with plenty of field in front of him, as Oakland's drive had stalled at its own 35-yard line.
"I had a chance to hit a big one," he told PFW. "It was kind of one of those deals — I did feel the pressure a little bit of chasing that record, and I overswung a little bit on one and wish I could have had that one back."
Lechler's punt traveled just 38 yards and he had another punt of 42 yards later that day. The 10-year veteran ended up with a 51.14 gross average, second-best ever, but broke his own NFL record for net punting, set in '08, by compiling an average of 43.9, which is a considerable leap from his mark of 41.2 in the previous season. Baugh's record proved elusive, though, as it has for the past 69 years.
"Being so close to doing something that hasn't been done in (69) years ... I knew what I needed to do the last two games and I kind of felt it a little bit in the Cleveland game," Lechler said. "After that game I needed to make up like 33 yards to get the record and I knew it was going to be a tough task with Baltimore coming into Oakland (in Week 17)."
Lechler, who has spent his entire career with the Raiders, doesn't come up short very often. He tied for second in the league in punts with 96 in '09 and racked up a league-high 4,909 yards. That's 198 yards more than the runner-up for punting yards, 49ers P Andy Lee, who ranked first in punts with 99. Lechler's punts resulted in a league-high 12 touchbacks, and he dropped 30 punts inside the 20.
One of the days from this season that he looks back at most fondly is Sept. 20, when the Raiders beat the Chiefs at Kansas City. Lechler punted seven times for 398 yards, resulting in an eye-popping gross average of 56.9, which ended up being his single-game season high.
"Over my career I have not punted real well at Kansas City," he explained. "It's just been a tough spot for me mentally to kick, because I've struggled there a few times.
"Looking back, there's maybe one or two punts out of 96 that I wish I could have had back and redone. Other than that, it's hard to say that I could have achieved or done any better because of that fact. I felt like I hit every ball exactly like I wanted to, and the gross average, any time you can go over 50, it's huge, because it's really only been done one other time."
Lechler could go down as the greatest punter of all time. His career gross average of 47.3 is the highest ever for punters with at least 250 attempts. The average for the great Baugh, who ranks fourth all time, is 45.1. Not bad for a guy who says he hated punting for much of his college career at Texas A&M.
"I went from playing every snap on Friday nights in high school — offense, defense, all the special teams — to getting to college and only punting," he said. "I found it quite boring, to tell you the truth. There wasn't enough going on for me at the time. It was hard for me to focus on just punting whenever you felt you could give so much more."
He has given the Raiders plenty during his career, but, unfortunately for Lechler, success in terms of wins and losses has not followed. As the team in Oakland has lost some of its relevance during a painful past seven seasons — the Raiders haven't won more than five games in a season since 2002 — the punter's accomplishments over the years haven't always received the level of recognition they warrant.
Wins and losses are a big part of any player's résumé, and Lechler said he wouldn't have it any other way.
"Everybody is concerned with winning and losing," he said. "That's where the focus should be. I know whenever I get a chance to be with just my punt team, I try to focus those guys on our goals and not let the losing and stuff like that bring them down because there's something to being a part of history and that's what I try to tell those guys. 'Don't get down on our unit because no one has ever done what we've done collectively as a group.' "
If Lechler keeps this up, the losses will have a hard time overshadowing his final numbers.
To see the other awards given out by Pro Football Weekly and the Professional Football Writers of America, get a copy of the Jan. 24 issue of PFW, now on sale at newsstands and bookstores or online at PFWstore.com.
PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue now ready for mailing and a third issue focusing on underclassmen to be published in the next few weeks. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.
After the rookie RB class of 2008 stole the show a year ago, '09 was all about receivers and linebackers, as more than a few players emerged as stars at each position. With that, here is the Pro Football Weekly/Professional Football Writers of America All-Rookie team.
OFFENSE
Numbers don't always tell the whole story. While Jets QB Mark Sanchez tossed 20 interceptions compared to just 12 touchdowns in his 15 starts, he played steadily enough down the stretch to lead New York to an unexpected playoff berth. He also displayed composure and leadership skills well beyond his years.
Although not as productive as their '08 predecessors, the '09 All-Rookie backs are a formidable duo. Denver's Knowshon Moreno led all rookies with 947 rushing yards, adding 213 yards receiving and scoring nine times despite sharing the workload. Similarly, the Cardinals' Beanie Wells was also part of a split backfield, but he emerged as the go-to guy late and wound up running for 793 yards and seven TDs.
Offensively, wide receivers ruled the roost among '09 rookies, with Percy Harvin and Austin Collie standing out most. Harvin made an impact for Minnesota right away, as the athletic phenom finished with 60 catches for 790 yards and six TDs. Collie, meanwhile, wasn't expected to be a major contributor for the Colts but got an opportunity after an injury to Anthony Gonzalez. He became a favorite target for Peyton Manning and had 60-676-7 receiving.
In a weak TE class, the Lions' Brandon Pettigrew showed more than his positional mates. Although a torn ACL limited him to 11 games, Pettigrew showed flashes of being an outstanding blocker and adequate pass catcher.
Up front, C Alex Mack started all 16 games for the Browns and brought stoutness to the position, not making mistakes and living up to his lofty billing.
On either side of Mack are the Bills' Andy Levitre and San Diego's Louis Vasquez. Playing mostly at left guard, Levitre played well and proved to be durable, starting every game for a very banged-up unit. With Vasquez, the Chargers found an effective player who was up and down but did what was asked of him. He started 14 games and helped keep Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers upright.
Anchoring the outside of the line are Baltimore's Michael Oher and the Vikings' Phil Loadholt. Although much was made of his ability to protect the blind side, Oher mostly manned the right side for the Ravens and was a 16-game starter. He was solid as both a pass protector and run blocker, clearing the way for a huge year from RB Ray Rice. Also starting at right tackle, Loadholt turned out to be the big, nasty lineman Minnesota needed. He was able to stay low despite his 6-foot-8 frame and kept Brett Favre clean.
DEFENSE
An athletic player with some question marks coming out of Temple, Jaguars DT Terrance Knighton exceeded just about all expectations. He was tops among all rookie linemen with 45 tackles and started every game. Next to him inside is B.J. Raji, a top-10 draft selection who played the nose in Green Bay's 3-4 scheme. Although he was plagued by an ankle injury all year, Raji made his presence felt when Ryan Pickett went down.
Lining up at the ends are AFC West foes Matt Shaughnessy of Oakland and Tyson Jackson of Kansas City. An injury to Greg Ellis opened the door for Shaughnessy to make an impact as a rotational player, as the third-rounder piled up four sacks. Jackson, meanwhile, did not live up to the hype after being the third overall pick last April, but he was a full-time starter and finished with 38 tackles, a fair number for a 3-4 end.
Defensively, linebacker is clearly the spot at which this class shined. Nobody was better than the Texans' Brian Cushing, who set a physical tone for the Houston "D." He proved to be an all-around star, piling up 133 tackles, four sacks and four INTs on his way to a Pro Bowl nod. Not far behind Cushing is former USC teammate Clay Matthews, who improved the Packers' defense greatly once he entered the starting lineup. He was a big-play machine, recording 10 sacks and three fumble recoveries, and he was named to the Pro Bowl team as a replacement. Lastly, the Redskins' Brian Orakpo stood out while rotating between linebacker and D-end, an impressive feat for a rookie. His 11 sacks helped land him on the Pro Bowl roster.
Manning the corners for the All-Rookie club are the Dolphins' Vontae Davis and the Colts' Jacob Lacey. Although he gave up some big plays, Davis frequently put his top-notch physical skills on display, finishing with four interceptions and 52 tackles. Not even drafted in April, Lacey turned out to be a godsend for an Indy secondary that was decimated by injuries. Despite making just nine starts, he had a terrific 85 tackles, 13 passes defended and three picks.
Rounding out the defense are safeties Jairus Byrd of the Bills and Louis Delmas of Detroit. Byrd proved to be quite a ballhawk in Year One, tying for the league lead with nine interceptions and helping Buffalo rank No. 2 against the pass; he's headed to the Pro Bowl. Delmas, meanwhile, was the lone bright spot in a dismal secondary. A tough player and hard hitter, he had 94 tackles and two picks, one of which he returned for a 101-yard TD.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Ryan Succop, "Mr. Irrelevant," proved quite relevant for the Chiefs, drilling 25-of-29 field-goal attempts. For the Colts, Pat McAfee did more than just punt, also emerging as the best kickoff guy the team has had in years.
In addition to being an All-Rookie receiver, Percy Harvin also made the squad as a kick returner, averaging 27.5 yards and taking two kicks back for scores. The Bengals' Quan Cosby was also a very effective return man in Year One. Despite going undrafted, he made explosive plays and gained 11.9 yards per punt return.
Arizona's LaRod Stephens-Howling, a seventh-rounder, stepped up as an exceptional special-teams gunner. In Week 12 alone, he downed three punts inside the opponents' five-yard line.
2009 All-Rookie team
OFFENSE
Quarterback
Mark Sanchez / Jets
Running backs
Knowshon Moreno / Broncos
Beanie Wells / Cardinals
Wide receivers
Percy Harvin / Vikings
Austin Collie / Colts
Tight end
Brandon Pettigrew / Lions
Center
Alex Mack / Browns
Offensive guards
Andy Levitre / Bills
Louis Vasquez / Chargers
Offensive tackles
Michael Oher / Ravens
Phil Loadholt / Vikings
DEFENSE
Defensive linemen
Tyson Jackson / Chiefs
Terrance Knighton / Jaguars
B.J. Raji / Packers
Matt Shaughnessy / Raiders
Linebackers
Brian Cushing / Texans
Clay Matthews / Packers
Brian Orakpo / Redskins
Cornerbacks
Vontae Davis / Dolphins
Jacob Lacey / Colts
Safeties
Jairus Byrd / Bills
Louis Delmas / Lions
SPECIALISTS
Placekicker
Ryan Succop / Chiefs
Punter
Pat McAfee / Colts
Punt returner
Quan Cosby / Bengals
Kickoff returner
Percy Harvin / Vikings
Special-teamer
LaRod Stephens-Howling / Cardinals
To see the other awards given out by Pro Football Weekly and the Professional Football Writers of America, get a copy of the Jan. 24 issue of PFW, now on sale at newsstands and bookstores or online at PFWstore.com.
PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue now ready for mailing and a third issue focusing on underclassmen to be published in the next few weeks. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.
For the Chargers fans who were ready to jump ship for what had been a mostly fruitless offseason, about face, please. Your team will be one of the power brokers in the draft.
Sure, they don't pick until 28th in the first round, but they now hold the 40th pick (thanks, Seattle!), which was acquired in the Charlie Whitehurst trade, and they also have three third-round picks next year that they can use as trade bait into this draft if they so choose. In a deeper-than-normal draft, especially at some need positions, they should be able to be a better football team next season.
A lot of people feel Ryan Mathews might be the running back they need at 28 with LT gone and no 20-carry back in place. Normally, I don't like the idea of taking running backs in Round One because they can be found throughout the draft and first-round picks there don't often live up to expectations. But with all the early picks, the Chargers could go for a guy such as Mathews, whom I like a lot. He's better than Donald Brown, who went in the same range last year, and might be one of the few true workhorse backs in the draft this year in what looks like a sub-par lot.
In the second round, they could get the nose tackle they need to replace Jamal Williams. I like North Carolina's Cam Thomas a lot, though you might be able to get him in Round Three. Alabama's Terence Cody also could be an option.
I think a defensive end also could be on the docket. So perhaps a versatile D-lineman such as Cal's Tyson Alualu or Texas' Lamarr Houston could work. Both are solid second-round options.
I also could see them looking at the offensive line, too. If the Chargers want someone who projects to be a starter in a year or tow, they'll have to strike early. USC's Charles Brown might be a nice project. Or a fleet-footed pass protector such as West Virginia's Selvish Capers might fit.
If you know anything about the Chargers and the way they draft, you know they love to take cornerbacks early. The trade of Antonio Cromartie almost guarantees they'll follow suit this year. Virginia's Chris Cook might be off the board by the 40th pick, but if not he'd be a great fit. So would Oklahoma State's Perrish Cox, though he might be more of a third-round possibility.
And hey, why not take a look at Tim Tebow? With Whitehurst gone and two solid QBs in tow, Tebow could come in with little fanfare (relatively speaking, of course), sit behind another unorthodox QB in Philip Rivers and perhaps moonlight at a tight end/H-back. They have the picks early to take a risk on a guy like that.
Lots of options. Hang tight, Chargers fans. Your team isn't dead yet.
I admit that I have heard a lot of potential solutions for overtime football, many from readers, but none wholly satisfying in my opinions. But I do give you guys credit for some out-of-the-box thinking.
The problem as I see is that teams don’t want the game to change with any funny rules, such as you can’t win with a single field goal; that it would require a four-or-more-point lead in OT to get a win. Also, the college system won’t work in the pros unless the ball is moved back to the 50-yard line or so, and even that doesn’t feel like NFL ball.
But here’s a thought to consider, one I fully credit to PFW’s art director. Figures: In an office of football writers, the art director comes up with the best plan. Maybe he’s not being paid enough. I wish I could take credit for this, because it's a decent idea.
The solution? Just keep playing. That’s right. The fourth quarter would end with the game tied, and the teams would flip ends and keep going, just like if the first or third quarter had ended. So if the ball was at the 35-yard line at the end of regulation, overtime would pick up with the ball at the same yard line, same down and distance and so on.
Not bad, eh?
Clearly, it would change strategy at the ends of games. Teams with the ball on their own 20-yard line with 45 seconds left and a timeout likely would have to think about gaining some yards instead of sitting on it and playing for overtime, especially if they were at home.
But the coin flip would be a bad memory, left for pregame ceremonies and former dignitaries, and it would have nada to do with the ends of games.
Overtime still would be sudden death, first team to score wins. You might see only one team get the ball. You might see the game end after 10 seconds or 10 minutes. It would not start with a kickoff unless a team scored to tie the game as the regulation clock expired. It would be football: same rules, same game, no weird tinkering or rule altering.
If there’s a drawback that I see immediately (Bob threw this at me 10 minutes ago), it’s that OT still becomes a field-goal approach. Teams are just trying to get within range to get a win; they probably aren’t thinking touchdown most times. But so what, really? How else would you play a game you know could end on the next snap?
I also think some coaches would dislike adding one more strategy element to the ends of games. But I would think that a smart coach like Jeff Fisher would enjoy the challenge, perhaps able to steal a game or two in the first couple years of existence before a textbook, league-wide strategy is established. Of course, we know there would be no set plan of action for a guy such as Bill Belichick, master of the unknown and unpredictable. For all we know, he’d quick kick on a third down from his own 34-yard line with 20 seconds remaining, perhaps flummoxing the opponent (or his own team, for that matter).
It’s an idea. And a good one, I think. Will it happen this year? Nay. But perhaps it’s one the league should consider. After all, it’s the closest thing to football that I have heard yet.
I hadn’t yet written about Brady Quinn or LaDainian Tomlinson reaction, so I thought I would kill two stones with one bird (my Dad’s corruption of the popular phrase) and hit both in one post. Why? Because I think both moves — plus a third swap of players — fits into a similar category.
In each case, the team in question below let a player (on in the Browns’ case, two players) at a given position and soon after signed or traded for a de facto replacement. These weren't straight-up trades, mind you, but the teams essentially swapped one or two for the other. In all three cases, I thought the moves were bad or pointless, or, heck, both.
So, onward with our disapproval swap list:
Browns swapping Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson for Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace: And the Browns gained what exactly? Look, not the biggest Anderson fan here and I am no Quinn apologist. But did Quinn have no upside, no development potential at all? In 12 starts for the team, the Browns had seen enough apparently. And you know what? He might not be very good, a plus-level starter, ever.
But we know what Delhomme and Wallace are at this stage in their career. Love Jake as a man, but I feel he has a bad case of the yips, spurred on from that disastrous playoff loss to the Cardinals on his birthday. I was there that night. I saw him walk, like a ghost, out of that locker room. I heard the deafening silence in the room and the pained, flabbergasted expression on his face as he tried to explain what happened out on the field.
I don’t think his problems since then have been physical; they’re clearly mental, though at 35, the physical part might not be far behind. And Wallace, well, he’s a career backup (and maybe not even that great) and occasional trick-play option or wideout. Maybe Anderson for sure had to go and Quinn’s time was close to being up anyway. But could you not have gotten more in return or at least replaced them with better players?
Jets swapping Thomas Jones for LaDainian Tomlinson: This one will haunt the Jets. Running backs have this strange, precipitous drop in their careers, and though they don’t know when it comes, it’s usually sometime close to their 30th birthday. Jones will be 32 in August, so perhaps he was due to fall from 1,400 yards and 4.2 yards per carry to roughly 750 and 3.4 next season. Maybe that’s what he’ll get in Kansas City.
But Tomlinson, only a year younger but much farther along in his body damage than Jones (841 more touches in his career), already has hit that wall. Heck, he hit it in the second half of 2008, before anyone wanted to admit it. Last year, no one could ignore it. With 730 yards, 3.3 yards per carry and only three rushes longer than 19 yards against mostly seven-man fronts (let’s be honest here), Tomlinson was cooked in 2009. He did that work on 220 carries; what’s he going to get as Shonn Greene’s backup? He’ll be lucky to see 200 touches total.
And the whole mentor-for-Greene thing? I don’t buy it. Tomlinson is mostly a classy guy, no doubt. But he’s also a type-A back in the Emmitt mold who wants his touches, despite all the good things he’s saying now. There will come a point, maybe when Greene’s fumbling problems resurface (don’t tell me you forget about them), when LT drops the slightest of hints that he wouldn’t have lost that ball. For years, he wouldn’t have. Now, I am not certain.
A bad move that actually cost the Jets $100,000 to make when you take into consideration how much Jones signed for in Kansas City. Would he not have given the same reworked deal to the Jets? Bet he would have.
49ers swap Shaun Hill for David Carr: The Niners gave up on Hill then thanked him for his terrific service after trading him for a bag of day-old doughnuts (actually a seventh-round pick). The real reason: He wasn’t a Mike Singeltary guy. But I can’t figure out why. Sure, you don’t want Hill starting 16 games for you, no, but can you do much better than him as a backup? I like the guy. He’s self-made, has starting experience and has the guts to come in and try to win a game when your starter is out, injured or ineffective.
Carr? He might be none of those things. I talked to a front-office man on one of Carr’s former teams who said he didn’t think the QB had a “gamer’s mentality.” Didn’t think he cared enough about the game. Yeah, when Carr got out there, you might see him make a few plays, but when was the last time — has there been a time? — when he made a play you remembered? A play that won a game, saved a game or put his team in a position to win? I’ll loan you the Houston Texans highlight DVDs from the first part of the decade, and you’ll see that those plays don’t exist.
And yet the 49ers paid him very well for a backup. So much so that it begs the question: How much does this team, the playoffs-verge team supposedly, really trust Alex Smith? Enough to bring in Carr and perhaps draft a QB in Round One at either 13 or 17? The whole thing stinks to me.
The Jets really thought they would have a shot to be the opening-weekend hosts of the brand-spankin'-new stadium that both they and the Giants will work in this season.
A ultra-secret coin flip, however, has given the rights to the Giants.
Even if this flip was on the level, is anyone surprised? The Giants have hosted 12 of the past 16 season openers at the old Giants Stadium and 18 of the 28 years the two teams shared a home.
And besides, no one wants to say it, but the Giants carry themselves with an air of superirority, even if the Jets were the better team last season according to the playoff results. I am sure there were Giants officials who fully expected their team, not those Jets, to be the hosts of the new mega-stadium.
Some people, though, even doubt that this coin flip took place. (Still checking on this.) One report via league spokesman Greg Aiello was that commissioner Roger Goodell was to make the decision. Cryptic, eh? So does that mean he was the flipper, or did he just make the call?
All we know now is that Woody Johnson, the owner of the Jets, reportedly is crazy mad because no Jets official was present at this now-suspicious coin event.
I'll be curious to find out what the deal is, though Gary Myers of the Daily News reports that the Giants were in fact the victors of said coin toss.
UPDATE (4:52 p.m. EST): The NFL now has said that the Giants will open there on the first Sunday of the season and the Jets will have the opening-weekend Monday Nighter. There, problem solved. Although, the Jets' inferiority complex remains.
The Redskins are planning to operate, at least part of the time, out of a 3-4 defense. Right now, they have mostly 4-3 personnel.
One of the poor fits for a 3-4 scheme is DE Andre Carter. Too light to play the five-technique DE spot and not comfortable enough dropping off as a two-point 3-4 linebacker, Carter likely would be reduced to rushing the passer if the Redskins use a four-man line in nickel or dime situations.
That's a bit of a dropoff in playing time for a guy who played surprisingly well last season, with (a career-high) 48 tackles, 11 sacks and three fumbles. The last time Carter played in a 3-4 in San Francisco, he had a rough season.
The prevailing thought out of Washington is that Carter is more of an asset in a trade elsewhere than he is as a part-time defender with the Redskins. They have only five draft picks currently and would love to accumulate more if they can.
With that in mind, let's take a quick look at some 4-3 teams in need of a pass rusher and whether they could be a good fit:
Falcons — There's a need at end, but it doesn't look like a greart fit on paper. They already have a right end who is over 30 years old (John Abraham), and they are short a second-round draft pick from the Tony Gonzalez. Probably not happening.
Panthers — Much like the Falcons, there's a need at end but also a shortage of draft picks. The Panthers lack a first-rounder and a fifth-rounder and likely only would be interested in trading future picks for Carter. Plus, he might not fit in accord with the team's clear youth movement.
Vikings — At first glance, you are thinking, "Whahhhhh??" Hear me out. This could be a need if a DE-needy team (Eagles?) makes a big push for RFA Ray Edwards and the Vikings were not able to match because of a poison pill. Now, it would not be an ideal fit; Carter has been best as a right end, which is Jared Allen. Chalk this up as a long shot, but it's one to keep an eye on.
Saints — The Saints pick last in every round except the fifth; they traded that pick to move up for P Thomas Morstead last year. Both those things work slightly against a deal, but don't rule this one out. Sure, the Saints have no pressure to add a veteran end considering they just let one walk (Charles Grant) and, oh yeah, just won a Super Bowl. They're playing with house money for the forseeable future and probably would favor younger players. But a team that has tasted victory can get greedy and want to stay on top, and they could use another end for sure. Will Smith is versatile enough to move to left end or roam between the two spots. It makes some sense, but the Saints could opt to pass if the price is too high.
Raiders — Hey, why not? Al Davis works from a completely different script from the other 31 teams and never has shied from taking on veterans. Carter went to Cal, grew up in San Jose and — always appealing to Davis — is a former 49er. The Raiders just dropped Greg Ellis and currently have Matt Shaughnessy penciled in as their right end. As nice a young player as he might be, he needs help for sure. They have an extra third-round pick in a trade with New England and lack only a sixth-rounder. The more I type, the more I think this fit could work.
Eagles — I keep this in perspective because the Redskins would not want to trade within the division. Plus, Trent Cole is entrenched at right end. Despite the need for another pass rusher, I don't see it happening.
Seahawks — The idea of Carter playing in Pete Carroll's 4-3 "under" scheme has some merit. And they have an extra first-round pick, which could allow them some comfort in possibly dealing a lower choice for a guy such as Carter. But those picks might be traded for a QB or receiver, which causes us to reconsider how likely this is. Probably not happening.
Buccaneers — Raheem Morris relies on his front four to provide pressure, and Styles G. White — as great as his name might be — is a part-time player at best. Again, this makes some sense, but does Carter fit with what Tampa is trying to do, roster-wise? Not really, but they did acquire some veterans last year and are not the most predictable team in terms of picking personnel. Still, a wid-card option.
Titans — More likely to go the young route, the Titans still could be interested in adding a pass rusher who could replace Kyle Vanden Bosch. Still, keep it in mind.
Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo watched intently yesterday as DT Gerald McCoy, one of the players the team is considering using the first pick on, worked through his position drills at Oklahoma's Pro Day.
Spagnuolo appears torn with the first pick. Of course, it's not his choice alone with others (including GM Billy Devaney) involved in the process, of course. But on the one hand, you might have a once-a-decade defender in McCoy vying for the top spot against his college teammate, QB Sam Bradford, who has earned comparisons to Philip Rivers.
So do you take McCoy, a Warren Sapp-like player, or Bradford, a potential Pro Bowl-type of quarterback, though one who might be just short of being exceptional?
Quarterback almost always wins that argument.
I am sure that Spagnuolo would love McCoy, even slightly more, I think, than Ndamukong Suh. In order to build a championship-level defense in St. Louis, like the one he had with the Giants, Spags must get more pass rushers. McCoy is just that: the rare three-technique who can blow up plays a la Tommie Harris or Kevin Williams at their best. Those guys are hard to find, and McCoy has great leadership qualities and toughness.
But finding a franchise QB is even harder, history tells us. That's why I think Bradford, assuming he tests out well enough, could be the guy. The Rams have let a few guys slip through their fingers in recent years and would hate to see another great, young quarterback play for another team while A.J. Feeley or Michael Vick or Keith Null (I am kidding) is not doing the job.
Trading down might not be an option. The team that might like to deal up, the Redskins, picks fourth. But moving to four would almost certainly eliminate the Rams from either McCoy or Suh and leave them looking at offensive tackles instead. That's not the direction they would want to go, and it would put even more pressure on them finding a QB lower in the draft, where the pickings, they are a-slim.
Either way, it seems Spags is going to watch a player he really, really likes play elsewhere. Can you say no-win? It's the nature of the NFL draft.
ESPN has just announced that Robert DeNiro will play Vince Lombardi in a film called, well, “Lombardi.”
Are you excited? Confused? Disinterested?
I have to admit, it would not be the first guy I would peg for the role, and I am sure he’ll do a fine job, but how are they going to meld the great lines of Lombardi — a quote machine back in the day — and the delivery of DeNiro?
Bart Starr, you lookin’ at me?
So far, it’s just not happening in my head yet. But they have time to figure this all out; the film isn't scheduled to be released until 2012.
Anyway, here’s the full release from ESPN:
Robert De Niro to Play Vince Lombardi; Eric Roth to Finalize Script
Tribeca Productions Joins ESPN Films, Andell Entertainment and the NFL to Produce Film
Academy Award-winning actor Robert De Niro is attached to play legendary coach Vince Lombardi in the theatrical motion picture LOMBARDI being developed by ESPN Films, Andell Entertainment and the NFL. Additionally, Academy Award-winning screenwriter Eric Roth (Forrest Gump, The Good Shepherd) has come on board the project which will chronicle Lombardi during the years he transformed the Green Bay Packers from the worst team in the National Football League into five-time NFL champions
The producing group of ESPN Films, Andell Entertainment, the NFL and Chris Olsen will be joined by De Niro and Jane Rosenthal's Tribeca Productions. ESPN/Andell have Lombardi's life story rights through his estate and Vincent Lombardi, Jr. as well as the rights to the renowned sports book Instant Replay written by former Packer great Jerry Kramer and Dick Schaap.
"Having an icon portray an icon on film is amazing, and with a writer as talented as Eric working on the script, the results could be magical for NFL fans," said Ron Semiao, senior vice president, ESPN Films - Motion Pictures.
Jane Rosenthal, co-founder of Tribeca Productions and the Tribeca Film Festival, said, "We've had an extraordinary relationship with ESPN for five years through the Tribeca Film Festival, and now we're able to extend that association into production."
"There are few actors who could accurately portray the fire, passion and grit of Lombardi and we're thrilled to have Robert De Niro on our team," said Charles Coplin, the NFL's vice president of programming. "With the addition of De Niro, Eric and Tribeca Productions, we have a deep bench to produce a film worthy of the legendary coach and American icon."
Current plans call for the film's release on the weekend between the AFC and NFC Conference Championships and the Super Bowl in 2012. CAA collaborates with ESPN Films on theatrical motion picture projects and represents De Niro, Roth and Rosenthal. Discussions are taking place with directors interested in the project.
Here's what Steelers chairman Art Rooney II had to say about the accusations against QB Ben Roethlisberger:
“All of us in the Steelers family are concerned about the recent incident involving Ben Roethlisberger in Georgia. We cannot comment on any of the specifics until law enforcement’s investigation is concluded. Certainly, we will continue to closely monitor the situation.”
There will be a 4 p.m. EST press conference held by local authorities to speak about the case. That will be must-see TV for this intrepid reporter.
Last night was a fascinating day for the Bears. They signed their biggest free agent ever in Julius Peppers.
It also was a hard day for the Panthers. But most of the angst was spent over the tough divorce with QB Jake Delhomme, one of the franchise's leaders for the past seven years. It seems Panthers fans did their quiet mourning last week when they knew Pep wasn't going to come back.
I went to the Peppers press conference in Chicago and joined him in a small room afterwards with a small contingent of media. I asked Julius Peppers when he knew his days as a Panther were over.
"The decision was made last year," Peppers said, "and then they placed the franchise tag on me. So I had to come back for another year. And I was fine, I was fine coming back for another year.
"At that point, I saw myself being there. I saw myself signing a long-term deal with them. But after the season was over, I was still thinking I was going to be there. But at that point, we didn't hear anything from them. So that's when the decision was made again — for the second time.
"So it was made twice."
A little confusing, right?
A lot of Peppers' time in Carolina felt that way. He never fully embraced being with the team over the long haul, and many fans felt the same way about him. They loved his production at times and certainly didn't hate him as a person. But Peppers never quite fostered a love affair with the team, the city or the locker room.
He was just quiet Peppers, trying to find his place. We'll see if Chicago is a little more natural for him,
Knock at door.
Inside: Who is it?
Outside: It's Jim Schwartz, open up.
Inside: Let me get decent.
At least that's how I imagine the Jim Schwartz-Kyle Vanden Bosch meeting tonight at 12:01 a.m. outside KVB's house.
Will this collegiate recruitment style work for a 30-year-old vet? Maybe. Hey, it worked for another former Ravens assistant, Rex Ryan, who snagged Bart Scott for the Jets one year ago.
Vanden Bosch would be a big signing for the Lions. On what should be a completely remade line, he would add a great presence. You have Corey Williams, whom the Lions just dealt for, Sammie Hill, Jason Hunter, Cliff Avril and possibly the second pick in the draft, either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy.
That's worlds better than what the Lions had last season.
Can they get it done? Would KVB say no to his old coordinator in Tennessee?
The free-agent drama has better slightly better than I anticipated so far, even if big names are not out there.
Lovie Smith is traveling for his job tonight. He landed a short while ago, hoping to bring free-agent DE Julius Peppers back to Chicago with him and sign him to be the team's pass-rush ace alongside DT Tommie Harris.
The move makes sense. For both sides.
Peppers would be behind Brian Urlacher and Jay Cutler as the faces of the franchise. And he instantly would upgrade the defense in a city that loves its defense.
For the Bears, it makes sense, too. They need something. No first-rounder, no second-rounder. Signing Peppers and Chester Taylor, who also is visiting Friday, well, there's your top two picks right there.
Think about this: The Bears have made the biggest first overture in free agency. The Redskins, meanwhile, are silent. Has that ever happened?
The free-agency bonanza (tongue firmly in cheek) begins at midnight tonight.
Everyone knows by now the dearth of quality unrestricted free agents available. But there are a few talented players who are set to hit the market.
In most people's eyes, the top three free agents likely to hit the market and join new teams are DE Julius Peppers, LB Karlos Dansby and CB Dunta Robinson. We don't know yet which teams they'll sign with. But what we do know is that their soon-to-be-former teams will have to replace them.
Here's a quick look at some possible solutions for each:
Panthers replacing Peppers
Peppers is a big loss, his inconsistency aside. He gave opponents a player to key in on and set their blocking protections towards. Often, Peppers was held in check but opened up opportunities for others to make plays. Other times, he busted through blockers and had games that made your jaw drop.
Part of the solution clearly is going to come from within. And drafting Everette Brown last year (trading this year's first-rounder to get him) appears smart now. Brown for this year's 17th pick with a redshirt-type of year in tow? I think the Panthers will make that deal every day again. Brown can help, though I am not sure he can be a Dwight Freeney type of rusher, even though that's the body type he has. I think he'll need some help.
One body might come through the draft. One could come with a lower-rung free agent. I like Adewale Ogunleye in free agency, but he's mostly a right end. You could sign Ogunleye and move Charles Johnson over, or flip flop him, but I am not sure that makes the most sense. Plus, Ogunleye might want to know he's going to start.
But what about the Rams' James Hall? He seems to fit the mold of tough end the Panthers like, and he can kick into tackle on third downs, which they often do with their guys. Hall could be a 1½-down player and keep Brown fresh at 35-45 plays a game. It's a thought. Sure, Hall is on the backside of his career at 33, but the Panthers are feeling the pressure to win now.
As for a rookie, keep an eye on a few players. Northwestern's Corey Wootton could slide down because of injuries and fit that run-stopping DE need. USC's Everson Griffin makes some sense, too, but he might be better at left end. Hall Davis from Louisiana-Lafayette also looks intriguing, with the versatility to move around, and he's close to being the athlete Peppers is. Seriously.
Cardinals replacing Dansby
Losing Dansby might not be as damaging as people think. He's a good, versatile player who fits the Cardinals' scheme well and can be a playmaker. But his reputation exceeds his value in my opinion, with a few big games cementing his reputation as a player. Dansby long was known as a player who only showed up on game days, and he also has been accused to playing soft early in the season.
That said, his replacement almost certainly isn't on the roster right now. Don't tell me Ali Highsmith, Mark Washington or Reggie Walker is ready to take the lead here. And Cody Brown, last year's second-rounder who spent his rookie season on I.R., is more of a fit outside. Dansby is a 4-3 "under" outside linebacker and kicks inside over the three-technique in three-man fronts. So you'll need that versatility (or a few players) to match that.
Here's what GM Rod Graves said about potentially losing Dansby at the Combine: "We hope to replace him with equal quality or better, and whether we have that opportunity to do that this year or not, we will have to see. The main thing is we are a football team that I think is positioned correctly to withstand transition, whether we lose Karlos Dansby or Kurt Warner …"
Brown could help. So could a draft pick. With the 26th pick, they might have to go a different direction, perhaps offensive tackle or safety. If they do take a LB in Round One, Missouri's Sean Weatherspoon might be a very good fit. But with their second-rounder, No. 56, the Cardinals could find a nice player waiting for them, too. Some nice fits with ILB-OLB versatility who might (stress: might) be there include: TCU's Daryl Washngton or Florida's Brandon Spikes, maybe Penn State's Sean Lee. I think all those guys would be good fits. Among free-agent solutions, the team could look at Saints OLB Scott Fujita (though he'd be a better fit in the Cards' "Predator" pass-rushing role if Chike Okeafor leaves) or Cheifs LB Derrick Johnson, a restricted free agent who played in Clancy Pendergast's similar system in Kansas City last season but lost his starting spot before playing well in the final few games.
Update (3:33 p.m. EST): The Chiefs placed a first-round tender on Derrick Johnson, which makes him signing elsewhere more unlikely. Or less likely. However you prefer to look at it.
Texans replacing Robinson
Most people feel that Robinson will seek employment elsewhere, given that he's regarded as the best corner on the market and likely to get a bigger offer with another team. The Texans wanted to keep him, but not at what it would have cost them, either franchising him a second time or trying to work out a long-term deal. Those talks went nowhere, which gives you some idea what they think of a player who never has made a Pro Bowl and had zero interceptions and only nine passes defended in 16 starts last season.
Glover Quin was a great find in Round Four last season and figures to start at left corner. Brice McCain saw some action in subpackages and was decent; he's also a similar sized player to Robinson, though I don't think they're ready to hand him a starting gig yet. Jacques Reeves is what he always has been: A competitive player other teams like to pick on. He's best (being kind here) as a nickel. Could Fred Bennett regain his mojo after two so-so seasons? Maybe but not highly likely, just don't completely forget about him. And there's always Antwaun Molden, the perennial tease. Both he and Bennett are young and have good size, but they can't be asked to step in. Translation: Another draft pick likely cometh.
GM Rick Smith was asked about the CB situation in Indy. Predictably, he played up the in-house guys. "Anytime you lose a player like Dunta, who plays at the level that he plays, you've got to think about how you replace that," Smith said. "I do think we've got some young players on our football team that perform well. I think Glover Quin did an excellent job for us last year. You've heard Gary (Kubiak) say that had it not been for Brian Cushing and his impact, that a lot of people would have been talking a lot more about his contribution and what Quin did for us. Then Brice McCain got some quality reps, we've still got Jacques Reeves on the roster and Jacques started for us, so he's got experience. Fred Bennett has been a starter for us. So we're not depleted at the position, but you still are looking for impact players whenever you lose a player of his caliber."
The Texans have all their draft picks in the early going. They pick 20th in Round One. It could be a running back such as C.J. Spiller (though I doubt he goes that far down) or Ryan Mathews or a defensive tackle such as Jared Odrick or Dan Williams. As for what corners might be available, I can tell you Joe Haden, despite his poor 40 time, likely won't fall there, and Boise State's Kyle Wilson is starting to get some major noise in Round One. Other guys in that range: Patrick Robinson, Devin McCourty and Perrish Cox, but these guys might not scream out "first-rounder" to a lot of folks. Instead, you could see the team wait until Day Two (that's Rounds Two and Three now) to pluck a guy and still could have a decent lot of CBs to choose from. Alabama's Kareem Jackson is a fast riser who makes sense in Round Two.
For an hour or so, Taylor Mays was the talk of the NFL. The player with immense physical skills and questionable football instincts supposedly ran a 4.24-second 40-yard dash today, tying the all-time mark of Chris Johnson two years ago.
It was nice while it lasted.
The key word to Mays' time was "unofficial." Mays actually ran his second 40, a reported 4.34, before that unofficial time was changed.
Turns out Mays ran a best time of a 4.43.
What's 0.19 seconds between friends? In the NFL, it could be hundres of thousands of dollars.
But it raises a serious question: Why even have this automatic timing that almost always gets changed later with hand-timed clocks? Answer: TV.
The NFL Network is trying to make an event out of the Combine workouts, which can be painfully boring for the layman fan without a little additional spice. That's why Johnson's 40 is brought up every year and why Rich Eisen takes his crack at the run. It's better TV.
But this discrepancy is silly. How can they be that far off?
I am back home from Indy (the rest of the crew remains there through today), and I flipped on the NFL Network to see some of the workouts.
Must admit, I did a double-take when I saw the time of the three-cone drill for the ultra-pious Tim Tebow:
6.66 seconds.
Go figure.
OK, yes, the workout numbers were impressive, but I was laughing about the coincidental cone number.
Maybe I am going to hell. But I got a laugh out of it.
INDIANAPOLIS — After sustaining a pulled hammy and a subluxed shoulder trying to get over to the podium when Tim Tebow's name was announced amid the mad rush of media members, I thought I had no shot of getting a question in to the Golden Boy.
But through the combination of athletic grace and Combine smarts, I wedged inside stage right where Tebow was answering questions. And thankfully, he was looking my way at the time. The media got a little chippy with each other trying to get a question in.
I wanted to know how he thought he could be a good teammate this season as a rookie, knowing that he'd likely get as much media attention as a No. 1 overall pick, perhaps even more. His answer was, well, interesting, I suppose.
Before reading his response, you'll want to cue up the Beatles' "All You Need Is Love" first.
"I think a little bit like it went when I got to University of Florida," Tebow said. "Sometimes you can't help the attention, but what you can help is your attitude, you can help your work ethic. And when you go in there and show that, 'Hey, I am putting the team first, I'm going to do whatever it takes to help you guys succeed, to help this organization and, together, we can achieve more.'
"If they know that and believe that, then they are going to respect me. And that respect grows into like, and that like grows into love, and then you get a team that's bought it, and then you get a team that wins championships."
Well, if that doesn't fire you up for football, I don't know what will.
INDIANAPOLIS — When asked what kind of defensive scheme the Redskins will run this season, Mike Shanahan offered some clarification.
Some.
"We've got the principles of the three-man front and a four-man front and calling it the 'Washington Redskins defense' because we have the ability to do both," Shanahan said. "We'll see what (it ends up being) at the end of the day, where our players are and what they can do, and we'll see what gives us the best chance to win."
And when asked what spot Albert Haynesworth would play in each of those formations, Shanahan said that Haynesworth can play multiple techniques, including the nose.
Well, that clears that up.
INDIANAPOLIS — In his media address, Vikings head coach Brad Childress was asked about Brett Favre. No, seriously. Dan Arkush handled that part of Childress' chat.
But he also was asked about his concern over RB Adrian Peterson's fumbling issues and had some interesting things to say about it.
"It's still part of our offseason study," Childress said. "I know there has been a lot said about it. I am not going to discourage that guy from running the ball with the style that he runs with or not attempting to take his spirit or his heart or any of those things."
Childress is a historian, and a smart guy. He knew he'd get a Favre question, and he came prepared for it. Same with Peterson and his fumbling, with an example from yesteryear in mind.
"It's easy to compare him to Walter Payton, who fumbled once every 22.5 times he carried the football in his first three years, where as Adrian is a once-in-every-44.5 times (guy). You're living in 2010 right now. And we're just off a heartbreaking fumble here or there during the season. He's a good enough athlete and we are good enough coaches that we'll look at it and do what we can to rectify it. Usually when he sets his mind to something, he's pretty good at taking care of that problem."
After stepping down from the podium, Childress went off to the side and spoke to a few members of the media where the question of the fumbling continued. One writer suggested that a conversation with Tiki Barber, who used to have a major fumbling problem, or Tom Coughlin, the man who helped him kick it, might help.
"I know I am going to find Tom Coughlin at some point here," Childress said. "It's not different from interceptions. You go back and classify those fumbles. When is it (happening)? Why?"
And sure enough, there was Childress, just a few minutes later chatting with Coughlin, who, naturally, was 15 minutes early to his speaking engagement with the media. Although they only spoke for about five minutes, I wondered if Barber's or Peterson's name came up.
So we asked Coughlin.
"I can't give away those secrets," he said with a smile.
But would you give your fumble-curing secrets to Childress?
"No," Coughlin said, this time laughing.
He then echoed his one standby phrase for fumbling:
"High and tight," he said. "That's how you do it. These things are logged away, secret. It's under lock and key."
Well, so much for that potential gem.
INDIANAPOLIS — We've got quite a batting order today.
The media will speak with the following coaches and front-office personnel today: Lovie Smith, Billy Devaney, Ted Thompson, Mike Shanahan, Marvin Lewis, Brad Childress, Mike Smith, Mike Tannenbaum, Tom Coughlin, Rick Smith, Mke McCarthy, Mke Holmgren and Jeff Fisher.
Wow. Hard to find that kind of NFL talent in one place at one time any other day of the year.
In addition, we'll be talking to the quarterbacks (including the guys who won't throw/work out), running backs and wide receivers.
It'll be wal to wall today. The Fantastic Five is all in position, ready to fire away.
Stay with us all weekend.
INDIANAPOLIS — I knew when I saw that Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland was scheduled to speak today that I had to ask him a question in what is likely to be his one scheduled chat with the media this season (or any other season).
Working on a story about young receivers for the PFW preview magazine, I asked Ireland about their two consecutive WR draft picks from a year ago, third-rounder Patrick Turner and fourth-rounder Brian Hartline.
Hartline had a fine season, catching 31 passes for 506 yards and three TDs in two starts. Turner was a disappointment, playing in two games but not catching a pass.
Ireland didn't hold back on his assessment.
"We took Pat earlier than Brian," Ireland said. "These players develop in different stages. We just had Patrick on the board higher. Brian came in and learned the offense very well and did a nice job of developing quickly and learned a couple different positions at the same time.
"Brian, getting the playing time that he did, is ahead of Patrick right now. Patrick has to step it up. He's a player for the future. We like the player very much. He's a big, huge target, which this quarterback needs. We feel very good about his development."
Ireland wasn't mincing words: The Dolphins still like Turner, but the guy needs to do something this season.
INDIANAPOLIS — One of the more interesting things to come out of the rare appearance from Chiefs GM Scott Pioli was a comment he made regarding interviews at the Combine.
It's generally accepted that the medical evaluations and the interviews teams conduct with players are the two most important factors in Indy, more meaningful than the 40-yard dash or the bench press.
And as a result, many savvy agents have turned their clients onto a rigorous Combine prep course that includes a physical element (training for the drills) as well as a verbal element. In short, agents are prepping their clients for the questions they are bound to hear, training to say the right things and knowing when to shut up.
Pioli appeared to be on to this practice, saying that the Combine often features some highly trained players in these sessions.
"It seems to shift from year to year because there's this cat-and-mouse game that goes on I think between what we're trying to do and what the players are trying to do in terms of their preparation and the agents preparing them," Pioli said. "The interviews used to be a very important part of this process. They're not as important because a lot because a lot of these players and their agents have spent a lot of money and a lot of time preparing for every question under the sun, every circumstance, and every stress level imaginable."
A good interview can win a team over. A bad interview can turn a team off to a player. But what about a player who has been coached about what to say? Pioli seemed to suggest that it doesn't have a big effect because he and the Chiefs simply don't put much stock into a player who has been programmed more than others who come off more naturally and earnestly.
"It depends on the individual," Pioli said. "There have been a number of interviews where you get the authentic individual and you get the real person and there are other ones that are scripted. That becomes part of the process that you have filter through and sift through as much of that as you can.
"It's made other times of the year and during the season a little bit more important in trying to get to know players and who they are. I don't think they're trying to be duplicitous in an intentional way with any malice. They're trying to look good. That's their job. Everyone wants to look good in a job interview."
Here are the key injury updates heading into the late games of Week 17:
Here are the key injury updates heading into the early games of Week 17:
If you're in a traditional fantasy league, it's likely that your season has come to an end after Week 16's action. Congratulations if you came away with a fantasy title, and if not, there's always next year, right?
For some, however, there's one more week to go before a champion is crowned. That's because certain leagues opt to play out the fantasy season until the bitter end, not holding the championship matchup until Week 17. Whether or not you agree with this methodology (I personally don't, which I'll get into in a moment), it's just one of those things that a small percentage of leagues prefer.
The reason most leagues finish the season in Week 16 instead of 17 is because of the large amount of key players that are usually rested in the final week of the regular season. This is why I'm not really a fan of playing in Week 17: You play the entire season one way, then, because so many important players will see limited or no action in their last game, you have to completely alter your lineup and strategy for the most important week of your fantasy season. It doesn't really make a lot of sense to me, but that's not the issue here.
What's critical for owners who still have one week left in their fantasy campaign is figuring out which teams could be sitting players in Week 17, thereby creating fantasy dilemmas. We know for sure the Colts will be one of them. They benched many of their stars during the second half of Sunday's game, and it's likely that QB Peyton Manning and Co. will see very little action in the season finale at Buffalo, making it a bad idea to trust any of Indy's regulars in your lineup.
The Chargers are in the exact same boat, as they've already nailed down their exact seed in the playoffs. Don't look for long outings this week from QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, etc. as the Bolts rest up players and keep them healthy for the postseason.
Also in the AFC, the Bengals and Patriots have both clinched their division, but their seeding could still change. You'll have to keep a close eye on both these teams this week to see how they plan to approach Week 17.
Owners are a bit luckier with NFC teams, as even though the six playoff teams have been decided, there's still a lot of jockeying that could go on this Sunday. The only clubs I'd be worried about are the Packers and Cardinals, since they're facing off not only this week but possibly again in the first round of the postseason. With little on the line Sunday and knowing they very well could meet again the following week, both teams could opt to employ very conservative game plans and rest players in Week 17.
Good luck to anyone who still has a week left in the fantasy season. Try not to go crazy figuring out which players will actually play full games and who won't.
Here are the key injury updates heading into the late games of Week 16:
Here are the key injury updates heading into the early games of Week 16:
Sometimes, the players who prove to be most valuable during the fantasy playoffs are guys we never would have suspected back in September. This unpredictability is part of what makes fantasy football such a fun, interesting and crazy game. If we knew exactly how the season would shake out, how boring would that be?
In 2009, one of the unlikely players taking the fantasy world by storm is Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles. A backup to Larry Johnson in the first half of the season, Charles didn't get more than six carries in any of Kansas City's first eight games, even being declared a healthy inactive for one of them. But then Johnson decided to go run his mouth and get himself booted from K.C., opening the door for the diminutive second-year back to take on a larger role. He then literally took the ball and ran with it.
Since becoming the team's bell cow over the last six games, Charles has been a fantasy stalwart, finding the endzone in each of those contests. But it wasn't until the last two weeks — the fantasy playoffs in most formats — that he really took off. Described as a poor man's Chris Johnson, that's exactly the way Charles has played in Weeks 14 and 15. First, he ran for 143 yards and a TD on 20 carries vs. Buffalo (adding seven catches for 38 more yards), then he followed it up by gashing the Browns Sunday for a career-high 154 yards and a TD on 25 attempts. If you own him in your league, there's a good chance you'll be playing for a fantasy title next weekend.
But the question now is: Does Charles have one more monster effort left in him? After tearing up two horrible run defenses at home, he'll be hitting the road to take on a Bengals run "D" that ranks third in the league, surrendering only 85.2 yards per game. It will be a much tougher test for the speed merchant, who could be starting to run out of steam after carrying the load for so many weeks.
So what are owners to do? Well, unless you have other terrific options, sticking with Charles is your best bet. He's one of the hottest backs in the league right now, and he's also one of the main reasons you're even in your fantasy championship. It might not be realistic to expect him to torch Cincy for 150 yards, but he's proven over enough weeks that he's a reliable fantasy option, and those are often hard to find at this point in the season.
Don't outthink yourself only to watch Charles continue his reign of terror on your bench. If you're in the running for a fantasy title, you've got to play your hot hands.
Here are the key injury updates heading into the late games of Week 15:
Here are the key injury updates heading into the early games of Week 15:
Owning Lions RB Kevin Smith — which I did in one league — was not fun this season. Besides the fact that he only had five TDs, the second-year back ran for more than 75 yards on just two occasions (although he did have one 100-yard receiving game). Lately, however, Smith had started to show improvement, rushing for 37-144-1 in his last two outings, both against top run defenses. But just when it looked like fantasy owners might get surprising play from him during the fantasy playoffs, Smith hurts his knee in Week 14 and has since been placed on injured reserve.
That leaves an already lackluster Detroit rushing attack with even weaker backfield options, as the burden will now fall on veteran Maurice Morris and rookie Aaron Brown to handle the workload. Smith owners may be tempted to grab one of these backs in hopes that he can replace Smith's production, but there's a very slim chance of that happening.
One look at the Lions' upcoming schedule is all you need to realize that little fantasy production is going to come out of this backfield in the next two weeks. This Sunday Detroit hosts Arizona, who was burned by Niners RB Frank Gore on Monday night but previously had been stellar against the run, stifling Vikings RB Adrian Peterson the week before. Then in Week 16 the Lions travel to San Francisco, which boasts one of the best run defenses in the league and should have no trouble shutting down this feeble attack. The Lions are going to have little choice but to throw often in these two contests, rendering their rushers unusable for fantasy purposes.
Even with a more favorable schedule, could you really trust either of these guys in your lineup during such a crucial time? Morris is a 30-year-old career backup who's never been much of a TD threat and is averaging a career-low 3.7 YPC in 2009. And Brown is a sixth-round rookie who's more of a return specialist than a true running back. Throw in the fact that they'll be running behind a shoddy offensive line, and it's tough to find any reason to like them over the next couple weeks.
With so many RB options popping up on the waiver wire this week — Quinton Ganther, Arian Foster and Chris Jennings, just to name a few — there's no need to mess around with Morris or Brown. They're only going to disappoint you worse than Smith did.
As has become a tradition in mid-to-late December, the Colts have already locked up their spot in the playoffs, clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage with Sunday's win over the Broncos. At 13-0, they have nothing left to play for in the regular season, giving their final three games little meaning in terms of the outcome, outside only of their quest for perfection.
For fantasy owners of Indy players, this is the nightmare scenario they've become accustomed to over the years. Just when they need QB Peyton Manning and Co. most — during the fantasy playoffs — the Colts opt to rest their starters to keep them fresh and healthy for the postseason. According to most reports, this season will be no different, but it appears owners might catch at least a one-week break.
When asked how he plans to approach this week's game at Jacksonville, head coach Jim Caldwell said he would do so exactly the same way he prepared for the first 13 games, suggesting that he's not planning to sit any of his starters for the Thursday-night matchup. If this holds true, it looks like fantasy owners will catch a huge break in what's likely the semifinals of their playoffs.
Obviously, having Manning available to take on a weak pass defense like the Jaguars' is probably a significant upgrade over most owners' No. 2 QBs, and the same goes for his top targets, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark. All three players could have big games against the Jags, and their presence in fantasy lineups could be the difference between making it the fantasy title game or your season being over. Although the matchup isn't quite as good for RB Joseph Addai, he's still someone you'd have to start, as he's currently one of the league's top TD threats.
Before you get too excited, though, be aware that one or all of these players might not see their full complement of snaps, especially if the game isn't close. And even if they do, there's a good chance that this will be the final game in which the Colts do not rest their star players. Caldwell, a disciple of Tony Dungy, knows that getting a key player hurt at this point in the season could be devastating, and he's not about to take any unnecessary chances with nothing to play for.
While it's fine to stick with your Colts this week, it would be wise to make alternative plans for Weeks 16 and 17, and there's no guarantee that you'll have them at your disposal beyond Thursday night.
Here are the key injury updates heading into the late games of Week 14:
Here are the key injury updates heading into the early games of Week 14:
Every year there are a few players who come out of nowhere to have big Decembers and become unlikely pieces to fantasy owners' playoff runs. On Wednesday, a pair emerged that might wind up being examples of this in 2009: Texans RB Ryan Moats and Redskins RB Quinton Ganther.
Although Moats had value a while back after he tore up the Bills and looked like he was going to become Houston's featured back, he quickly became an afterthought when he went two straight weeks without a carry. But with Steve Slaton out for the season with a neck injury, Moats suddenly is back on the fantasy radar.
Even though Chris Brown is still technicaly the team's starter and deserves fantasy consideration as well, the powerful Moats led the Texans in rushes last week with 12 (for 41 yards) and chipped in with three catches for 24 yards. It'll likely be a timeshare between the two moving forward, but Moats' versatility could lead to him being on the field more down the stretch. With matchups against the Seahawks and Rams the next two weeks, it's very possible that Moats could be a solid contributor, making him worthy of flex consideration in larger leagues.
Ganther, meanwhile, had been lurking in the shadows of Washington's backfield the past couple weeks, getting 13 carries for 78 yards over the last two games while backing up Rock Cartwright. But with Cartwright accomplishing little during his time as the starter, head coach Jim Zorn made the decision Wednesday to promote Ganther to the starting lineup. With Clinton Portis (concussion) on I.R., it's a move that likely will last for the remainder of the season.
A seventh-round pick in 2006, Ganther is somewhat of an unknown, but that doesn't mean you should be afraid to take a chance on him. He's averaging 5.3 yards per carry for his career, and he should be seeing a fairly decent workload for an improving offense in the coming weeks. Ganther's best chance for success likely will be this Sunday at Oakland, which has one of the league's worst run defenses. He has home games with the Giants and Cowboys the following two weeks, and while those matchups aren't ideal, it wouldn't hurt to add him and see what happens.
After all, it's not like we haven't seen strange heroes in the fantasy playoffs before, right?
Prior to the start of the season, the one term we all heard to describe the 49ers' offense in 2009 was this: run heavy. New coordinator Jimmy Raye made it known that under his watch, the Niners would feed the ball to RB Frank Gore early and often, running most of the time and using a short passing game with QB Shaun Hill. It was great news for Gore owners, but it dampened the prospects of anyone involved in the San Fran passing attack.
For the first part of the season, Raye's promise held true. The 49ers were committed to the ground game with Gore and, when he was hurt, Glen Coffee. But things began to change when QB Alex Smith played well in relief in Week Seven and took over the starting job the following game. With Smith having a better arm and giving the offense more options than Hill did, Raye's philosophy underwent a change. And in recent weeks, the "O" has practically done a 180.
Over the past three games, San Fran has suddenly turned into a pass-first attack, with Gore sometimes becoming an afterthought. In that span, Gore has totaled just 32 carries for 117 yards and zero TDs, a far cry from where he was at early in the season. He has somewhat salvaged his numbers in those three contests by catching two scores, but nonetheless, he's clearly taken a backseat to the passing game.
Not shockingly, Gore's decline has coincided with the rise of Smith, who's been a very solid fantasy player as of late. His last three outings have produced an impressive 769 yards, seven TDs and one INT. Smith has thrived since Raye started implementing more shotgun spread formations into the playbook, and there's no reason his play should fall off down the stretch. With matchups against the Cardinals, Lions and Rams still left, Smith could wind up being a fantasy playoff star.
Furthermore, Smith's emergence has been good news for WRs like Michael Crabtree, who has developed into a decent starting option in larger leagues, and Josh Morgan, who had 56 yards and a TD last week. But of course, no one has benefited more than TE Vernon Davis, who was good with Hill under center but has been even better since Smith took over. In the last three games, he has a tremendous 18 catches for 288 yards and three TDs. Tied for the league lead with 10 TD catches on the season, he's truly become an elite fantasy TE.
So while Gore owners might have reason to be worried during the fantasy playoffs, those with Smith or Davis on their rosters should be thrilled, as that duo could help lead some owners to the fantasy winner's circle.
Here are the key injury updates heading into the late games of Week 13:
Here are the key injury updates heading into the early games of Week 13:
Age is not the friend of any NFL player, but it's especially evil toward running backs, who almost never are as effective once they reach 30 years old. This season, age and heavy workloads have caught up to a number of backs, and it looks like a couple could be ready to call it quits for 2009.
In Cleveland, 30-year-old Jamal Lewis had already stated that this would be his final NFL season, but it appears that he won't even make it to the end of '09. After suffering a reportedly serious concussion during last week's contest, Lewis is likely headed to injured reserve, meaning he's probably played his last game as a pro. While this obviously isn't the way Lewis wanted to go out, it does allow the Browns to go young at RB, which they've likely been wanting to do for some time now.
Chris Jennings, a 23-year-old who signed with Cleveland in October, has gotten some work the past few weeks and is likely to take over as the starter. Although he doesn't inspire much confidence from a fantasy perspective, Jennings does have matchups with the Chiefs and Raiders in Weeks 15 and 16, so the potential is there for him to have some value. Keep in mind that he'll probably be giving up some carries to Jerome Harrison, though.
Similar events are taking place in Washington, where Clinton Portis, 28, has missed the last three games following a concussion. Although he's been cleared to return, Portis said that he might consider shutting it down and coming back healthy in 2010. Considering that the Redskins aren't in playoff contention, it wouldn't be surprising if the overworked RB calls it a season.
With Ladell Betts (knee) already done for the year, Rock Cartwright looks like he'll handle the bulk of the workload going forward. Just turning 30, Cartwright is actually older than Portis, but he has far fewer career carries and has looked more spry this season. Although he didn't do a whole lot in last week's outing, Cartwright is a dual threat who should see the ball often in the final month, with Washington's other backs spelling him only occasionally. He could wind up being a difference-maker down the stretch.
Finally, there's the Eagles' Brian Westbrook, who just happens to be age 30. He's already missed four games in '09 due to multiple concussions and could wind up sitting out the remainder of the season, although he is at least making an effort to return. In his absence, rookie LeSean McCoy has proven to be a very solid player and could wind up taking over for Westbrook permanently in 2010. McCoy has a fairly tough schedule during the fantasy playoffs, but he gets the ball often enough to still make an impact.
The Falcons were supposed to be one of the league's most intriguing offenses in 2009, and at times this season, they have been. But with some shaky QB play and now injuries starting to pile up, Atlanta is quickly becoming a fantasy wasteland.
Although the injury problems technically started before the regular season began, when a knee injury knocked No. 3 WR and fantasy sleeper Harry Douglas out for the year, they didn't escalate until Week 10. That's when RB Michael Turner, who had been on fire, suffered a high ankle sprain that kept him out in Week 11. But instead of giving him proper rest and holding him out another week or two, it appears the team rushed him back too quickly for Sunday's game, when he proceeded to reinjure the ankle.
Turner's status for this Sunday's meeting with the Eagles is unknown, but it wouldn't be surprising if he sat out. That would probably lead to some sort of timeshare between Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, who returned from a hip injury Sunday and scored on a 22-yard reception. Although Snelling might have slightly more value in this scenario as the goal-line back, neither one would be a great fantasy play against a decent Philly run defense.
The Falcons' other major injury Sunday was to QB Matt Ryan, who reportedly suffered ligament damage in his toe and has already been ruled out for Week 13. This means Chris Redman will start vs. the Eagles and possibly beyond, which doesn't exactly bode well for the fantasy values of any of Atlanta's pass catchers. Although Redman filled in admirably Sunday, throwing for 243 yards, two TDs and no INTs, that production came against the lowly Bucs. Philly's skilled secondary will provide a much larger challenge to Redman and Co.
Although Ryan wasn't playing great this season, he at least had developed a rapport with his receivers. That's something that could take Redman some time to do. He certainly wasn't afraid to throw to TE Tony Gonzalez on Sunday (9-83-0), so it appears Gonzo will be safe to leave in lineups. WR Roddy White finished with decent numbers as well (5-57-1), but owners shouldn't be shocked if his stats take a hit with Redman under center. Temper expectations for all Atlanta skill players not only for this week but maybe for the remainder of the season, as health problems could persist for a number of weeks.
Here are the key injury updates heading into the late games of Week 12:
Here are the key injury updates heading into the early games of Week 12: